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Reading The Tea Leaves Of Enugu PDP Governorship Primary – By Ejenogwu Igwebike

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HRH Igwe Onyioha Nwanjoku welcomes Senator Ike Ekweremadu to Oduma
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In my previous life I dabbled into many trades and one of them is tasseography or tasseomancy, which is basically the art of attempting to predict the future as in the very distant future.  However as the political permutations in Enugu State PDP have taken on heightened intrigues, predicting the outcome of the PDP governorship primary happening tomorrow, December 8, 2014 is akin to looking into the crystal ball and reading the tea leaves put together for an event that would occur sometime in the distant future.

 

Despite the song of consensus candidate the field of governorship aspirants has gradually become crowded.  There are about seven aspirants and counting –all campaigning to be the governorship candidate of Enugu State PDP.  The candidates are Anayo Onwuegbu, Sam Onyeishi, Eugene Odo, Chinedu Onu, Ayogu Eze, and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi.  These men are known quantities and need no introduction.

 

Of the seven only Anayo Onwuegbu is not from the Nsukka zone of Enugu North where PDP zoned the governorship.  Engr. Onwuegbu is a veteran governorship aspirant having contested since 2003.  My third eye did not see much going for him in this contest being that Enugu West where he hailed from just produced Gov. Chime and the zoning train is inevitably heading to Nsukka.  His chance of emerging is as good as explained above however I commend for stepping up to the plate.

 

In view of the above, it is a forgone conclusion that the next governor is going to be a man from Nsukka, Enugu North.  One of them is Sam Onyeishi, a business mogul with little political experience.  The tea leaves tell me he would have done better getting to the governorship from another party since he does not seem to have deep tentacles within the present day PDP.  Even though he is the owner of the popular Peace Mass Transit, unlike other candidates, he has not held any known political position within the party hierarchy.  Despite his deep pocket it could be difficult for him to muster sizeable delegates to prevail in the contest.

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Eugene Odo is the current speaker of the Enugu State House of Assembly.  Ordinarily as the number three in Enugu State who quickly impeached number two, he would have been commanding more clout but the geography of his birth might have dimmed his chances in the confusing setup of PDP zoning.  A recent news report indicates that the members of the House of Assembly have shifted support from the speaker to the consensus candidate seriously eroding his base.  Also, his prominent role in the ‘chicken impeachment’ of the deputy governor did not throw shiny lights on his candidacy.  For him to advance at this point will take divine intervention and I see none coming.

 

As I am writing this piece I got a call informing me that Chinedu Onu has withdrawn from the race.  It was further learnt that DSP Ekweremadu has clinched the senate nomination as expected.  The gist is that DSP thanked Governor Chime and asked PDP members to support the consensus candidate Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi.  Chinedu Onu is rumored to be Ekweremadu’s candidate and one of the few candidates who have presented detailed program for the governance of Enugu State.  His candidacy is closely watched and I commend him for running an intellectual campaign.

 

The field has narrowed down to Senator Ayogu Eze and Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi.  Senator Ayogu Eze is a veteran of Ebeano group, a political warhorse with in depth grass root experience.  He vehemently opposed the process of the consensus arrangement as he insisted he is running for governorship.  Perhaps, there seems to be reasons why he opted to continue with the governorship race abandoning his sure bet of settling by returning to senate.  My sources tell me that he is in control of a chunk of delegates from the November 1, 2014 congress.  With his vast political experience and clout in Abuja it is foolhardy to ignore such a formidable force of a candidate at the eleventh hour.

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Finally, the man to beat in this race is Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi- GburuGburu.  Apart from being the consensus candidate with the most visibility in the state, he received the biggest boost of his candidacy today with the endorsement of DSP Ekweremadu.  This endorsement carries special weight emanating from the delegates elected in the ward congress of November 1, 2014.  Hon. Ugwuanyi has fast become familiar name and many support groups have emerged drumming support for his candidacy.  The government of Enugu State is pulling all stops to see him elected.  And with Gov. Chime and DSP Ekweremadu in agreement of his candidacy it seems he is coasting to easy victory but not so fast.

 

In conclusion, reading tea leaves is more of art than science.  The skill needed is more of an intuition and educated guess.  The politics of Enugu State PDP is graced with never-ending crisis punctuated by truces.  Some of the truces disintegrate before implementation as a result of mutual distrust.  Perhaps, this one is holding with the coming together of Gov. Chime and DSP Ekweremadu at the urging of President Jonathan.  The agreement produced re-nomination of most of the House of Assembly members.  It was a mixed bag in the National Assembly primaries as multiple candidates claimed victory after parallel primaries.  Whether the agreement sustains in the governorship primary depends on the path taken by Senator Ayogu Eze who has indicated that it is the governorship or nothing and he is in control of a chunk of November 1, 2014 delegates.  My hope is that talks are ongoing as horse-trading and deals are being struck to avoid the ghost of parallel governorship primaries. I call it for GburuGburu as the governorship candidate of PDP and ultimately the Governor-in-waiting of Enugu State.

 

Ejenogwu Igwebike, a policy analyst, writes from Enugu

 

 

Dr. Udeh

espatfame@aol.com

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