By Barr. Prince Uche Darlington Okeke
I, British trained Lawyer and an academic Doctor of Laws, Barrister Prince Uche Darlington Okeke is asking whether Prof. Chidi Odinkalu, a human rights activist is unnecessarily being envious by examining the economic exactitude of Anambra state Governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo who is a master economist?
In my humble opinion, Odinkalu’s faulting of Soludo’s micro-economic statement that Southeast geopolitical zone contributes eight percent of Internally Generated Revenue, IGR of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP, is neither here nor there because Soludo’s point was more of economics than human rights.
“Firstly, the 8% figure is not pulled from thin air. Soludo is an economist, former Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN. When he says “Southeast contributes 8% of GDP”, I think he is referring to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) state-level GDP data as it concerns Internally Generated Revenue/Value Added Tax, IGR/VAT contribution patterns”.
“NBS doesn’t publish a consolidated “Southeast GDP percentage yearly, but state GDP estimates in addition to IGR data back it up, consequently shows that Southeast IGR in 2023 was N142.95 billion with Lagos State alone estimated at N815 billion”.
“Furthermore, VAT contribution in 2024 was N101 billion and when added to N6.72 trillion national earnings, it would amount to 1.5 percent”.
“South-South officially contributes over 21 percent of GDP due to oil/gas, while Southwest also contributes 25 percent due to Lagos economy”.
“Southeast lacks oil gas and has lower industrial GDP. So, eight to12 percentage is the range most economists use. Soludo picked the conservative end. That’s data, not insult, as is being alluded by Odinkalu”.
“Secondly, Soludo’s point was economic, not existential. The full context of Soludo’s speech as I read is ‘Even if Southeast secedes today, Nigeria will still move forward’. That’s a macro-economics statement”.
“I think Soludo was saying that Nigeria’s GDP is made up of oil, Lagos, agriculture and other zones. So, removing eight percent from the sum total of national GDP would not collapse the country. It’s just like the same way an economist would say that if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC stops functioning, the world oil supply adjusts. Cold but factual”.
“Thirdly, it is considered to be dismissive, insensitive and dangerously misleading for Odinkalu to fault Soludo’s economic exactitude. Even though Odinkalu is free to call Soludo’s estimate insensitive or whatever, but facts do not become false because they hurt feelings”.
“I must state equivocally that if Odinkalu feels that Soludo’s data is wrong, let him challenge it and if the data is right, the argument should be centered on how Southeast can grow the eight percent to 20 percent and not to shut the Governor up”.
“May I, at this point, condenm Prof.Odinkalu’s position for politicizing economics, even when his profession is centered on human rights law, not economic statistics”.
“By jumping straight to what I may describe as an ‘insensitive’ instead of “inaccurate”, Odinkalu, to my mind has shifted the debate from facts to emotions, which is a common tactic when one cannot dispute the figures or numbers”.
“Should I say that Odinkalu thrives on outrage, not solutions or what? He might have built his brand as an activist who criticizes power. Fair. But critique without data or alternative is just noise making and empty rhetorics “.
“Soludo gave eight percent as an estimate with possible implication. So, Southeast must do more. Odinkalu gave what I may call a ‘dismissive, insensitive and dangerously misleading’ label and if one adds to policy discussion, the other ends it”.
“If I may ask, where was Odinkalu’s thread on how to move Southeast from 8% to 20%? Where’s his proposal on fixing sit-at-home that’s costing Southeast N5.57tn in annual state budgets? Therefore, criticizing the messenger is easier than fixing the message”.
“Prof Odinkalu tends to be inconsist, without disrepect to his person. The same voices who demand “speak truth to power” suddenly want politicians to soften economic truths when it’s about their region. If we want national restructuring, we must first agree on baseline truth and facts which Soludo did . Odinkalu avoided it”.
“Calling something ‘insensitive’ and all that is easy. Let Prof.Odinkalu show us the correct figure. Or better still, show us his plan to make it 20%. Activism without arithmetic is just an anger”.
Prof. Soludo wasn’t mocking Southeast the way Prof. Odinkalu is trying to make it seem. He was warning Southeast. In economics, if you’re 8%, you either grow or you’re ignored in national bargaining”.
“In summary, prof .Soludo spoke like an economist. Odinkalu responded like an activist. If Southeast wants more than 8%, we need more economists at the table, not fewer.
Barr. Prince Uche Darlington Okeke (PhD. International Laws) writes from Nkpor, Anambra state.
