In the presidential election next week, it’s all coming down to a few states, Ohio chief among them. According to HuffPost pollster aggregation figures, Obama has the edge in the “birthplace of aviation” state, averaging 48.5% compared to Romney’s 46%.

But according to the latest YouGov/Xbox poll, Ohio has slightly more Romney supporters than Obama supporters.

That said, while slightly more respondents said they intend to vote for Romney, a majority of the same respondents said they expect Obama to win. And here’s the twist: According to economist David Rothschild, “when the intention (i.e., support) and expectation of respondents in a poll point in opposite directions, the expectation is correct over 75 percent of the time.”

YouGov/Xbox is the poll Microsoft and YouGov have been running through Xbox LIVE. To vote, you answer questions in a preliminary questionnaire that surveys your gender, age group, geographical location (by state) and general voting preferences (Democrat, Republican, Independent, etc.) before answering the poll question(s) on tap.

I didn’t participate in the Monday, Oct. 29 poll that generated the above results, but to give you a sense of how this works, today’s poll questions include stuff like: “Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable or unfavorable?”, “What is your opinion of Mitt Romney?” and “How serious a problem do you think global warming is?”

In Monday’s YouGov/Xbox Poll, Rothschild says 12,479 U.S. respondents were interviewed, 642 of those indicating they live in Ohio. Of the latter group, 48.3% indicated support for Obama and 51.7% for Romney. But 51.1% of the same Ohio-based respondents said they expected Obama would win (as opposed to 48.9% for Romney).

But wait, shouldn’t intention matter more than expectation in an election? It sounds like common sense, right? Not necessarily. According to an academic study on voter expectations co-conducted by Rothschild and University of Michigan Business and Public Policy professor Justin Wolfers, “polls of voter expectations consistently yield more accurate forecasts than polls of voter intentions.”

One possible reason for this: Expectation questions incorporate more information, says Rothschild.

Every person possesses a batch of both public and private information about the election, and when a pollster asks them about their intention, the pollster is extracting only a small portion of that information; the pollster is just getting the respondent’s support on that day. The expectation question captures information about the respondents social network (e.g., who the respondent thinks her friends and family will vote for) and more public information (e.g., what the respondent is seeing in the news), along with the respondents’ intention to vote and support for one or the other candidate.

It’s an intriguing idea, one that’s especially interesting considering this “expectation” survey is being conducted through such an unconventional medium (the Xbox 360).

Read more: http://techland.time.com/2012/11/02/obama-expected-to-win-ohio-say-yougovxbox-poll-respondents/#ixzz2B6qRQx1v

ABUJA — The west African regional bloc ECOWAS is committed to restoring peace to Mali and ensuring that Al-Qaeda is pushed out of the country’s north, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan said Friday.

“We must take action to root out the Al-Qaeda, drug traffickers, kidnappers and other criminal elements who are turning northern Mali into a home for terrorists,” he said during a meeting with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle.

Jonathan, who visited Mali recently, sought the support of Germany and the European Union, an official statement from his office said.

“The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is committed to restoring peace and normalcy to Mali, and therefore seeks the support of German and the European Union,” he told Westerwelle.

Jonathan said contact with Malians during his visit there showed a desire for peace and a commitment to removing the rebels from northern Mali.

He said that Nigeria’s contribution to Mali would include technical support for the military, the statement said.

ECOWAS has decided to deploy a regional force to Mali, where a coup overthrew President Amadou Toumani Toure on March 22.

The north of the west African nation fell under the control of armed Islamist groups, some linked to Al-Qaeda, in the wake of the coup.

On October 12, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution preparing for the deployment of such a force for Mali, giving ECOWAS 45 days to firm up its plans.

Westerwelle, who arrived in Nigeria from Mali for a meeting of a bilateral commission, said his country was interested in the destiny of the sub-region, and was willing to help restore peace and normalcy to Mali.

Westerwelle said at the start of the meeting that Germany would work with Nigeria “to overcome the threats and the challenges in the region.”

Afterward, he said: “We cannot accept that terrorist activities find a new safe haven in north of Mali and work from this safe haven and bring their terror and their atrocities all over the world, including Europe.”

He added: “We discussed what we can do together to work against these terrorist activities of foreigners in the north of Mali. We are clearly committed to cooperate with Nigeria, of course with ECOWAS and the African Union. This is our common responsibility.”

Copyright ©  2012   AFP. All rights reserved.

Gunmen believed to be members of the Boko Haram this afternoon shot and killed General Muhammadu Shuwa (rtd), a well-respected soldier due to his exploits in the Biafran war of the 70’s.

Shuwa was killed inside his Gwange 1- Maiduguri home alongside his military guard and a guest.

THEWILL gathered that the gunmen who committed the dastardly act arrived his home pretending to be guests paying homage to the General after the usual Friday afternoon prayers.

Gwange district of Maiduguri is the hotbed of Boko Haram insurgency.

Confirming the killing of the war hero in a press statement, the spokesman of the Joint Task Force (JTF), Lt. Col. Sagir Musa said: “At about 12 noon today (Friday) at General Muhammadu Shuwa (Rtd) house in Gwange 1 area of Maiduguri metropolis, while the General was seated in his house with some guests, four men initially thought to be his visitors and guests for the Juma’at prayers entered his house and opened fire on the General and his guests.

“One of the guests died on the spot while the general died on the way to the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital.”

“The JTF troops located in the area immediately cordoned off the area and search for the assailants is ongoing to apprehend the terrorists.”

“The terrorists that carried out the killing of the late General will be brought to book,” he said.

Recall that the JTF Wednesday warned of a plot by the Boko Haram to assassinate politicians, civil and public servants amongst others.

The military has urged residents to volunteer information.

–

Source: TheWill

TEHRAN (FNA)- A senior Iranian military commander stressed that Iran enjoys the ability to supply the country’s Armed Forces with their needed military tools and equipment without foreign assistance.

Speaking on Friday, Head of Iran’s Foundation for the Preservation of Works and the Dissemination of Sacred Defense Values Brigadier General Hassan Seifi said that Iran’s Army has achieved self-sufficiency in producing military equipment and the abilities of Iranian scientists have enabled the country to make significant progress in this field

He stated that the country takes advantage of the smartest high-tech military and defensive munitions and equipment.

“Unlike Western countries which hide their new weapons and munitions from all, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Army is not afraid of displaying its latest military achievements and all countries must become aware of Iran’s progress in (producing) weaponry,” he was quoted by press tv as saying on Friday.

The Iranian Armed Forces displayed the country’s latest home-made military tools, weapons and equipments in large military parades in Tehran on September 21.

The annual September 21 parades mark the start of the Week of Sacred Defense, commemorating Iranians’ sacrifices during the 8 years of Iraqi imposed war on Iran in 1980s.

During the parades, the Iranian armed forces displayed different weapons and military tools and equipment, including different kinds of fighters, choppers, drones, ground-to-ground missiles, air-to-ground missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, tactical and armed vehicles, surface and underwater vessels, electronic and telecommunication equipment, light and mid-light weapons, different kinds of artillery and mortar-launchers, air defense systems and engineering and logistic equipment.

The Iranian Armed Forces have recently test-fired different types of newly-developed missiles and torpedoes and tested a large number of home-made weapons, tools and equipments, including submarines, military ships, artillery, choppers, aircrafts, UAVs and air defense and electronic systems, during massive military drills.

Defense analysts and military observers say that Iran’s wargames and its advancements in weapons production have proved as a deterrent factor, specially at a time of heightened threats by the US.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, on Thursday November 1, 2012, arraigned one Ibok Bennet Preston before Justice Abebisi Akinlade of the Lagos High Court sitting in Ikeja, on a ten count charge bordering on forgery and possession of fraudulent document to the tune of $4,500 (Four Thousand Five Hundred Dollars).

The accused is said to have fraudulently issued forged Union Bank of Nigeria Plc receipts, letters and several other documents purportedly obtained from the Nigeria Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), using a fake name: Rev. Christopher Wallace, with intent to defraud unsuspecting individuals over a contrived European Winning Lottery programme.

One of the charge reads: “ Ibok Bennet Presto on or about the 3^rd of August 2012 at Lagos within the IKEA division with intent to defraud knowingly forged a Union Bank of Nigeria Plc receipt with No. 0003704 and thereafter issued the said receipt in the sum of the One Thousand Five Hundred dollars ($1,500) to you with the name Rev. Christopher Wallace being part payment for the European winning Lottery programme paid on behalf of one M.E Rabmovich and purported the said Receipt to have been issued by Union Bank of Nigeria Plc”.

When the charges were read to the accused person he pleaded not guilty.

Counsel to the EFCC, Ben Ubi prayed the court for a short date for the commencement of trial and that the accused person be remanded in prison custody. Counsel to the accused person, J.I Njoku however urged the court to consider his bail application and that the accused person be allowed to remain in the EFCC custody.

Justice Akinlade remanded the accused in the EFCC Custody and adjourned to November 27, 2012 for hearing of the bail application.

The Economic and Financial Crime Commission on Monday October 15, 2012 arraigned Mrs. Millicent Ngozi Omeje before Justice V. K. M Udeh of the Enugu State High Court Nsukka division on a twenty count charge of forgery and stealing over twenty million naira.

Mrs Omeje, a former head of operations of Nsukka Township Community Bank (a Micro-Finance Bank) allegedly forged the signature of customers of the Bank and withdrawn money from their account to the tune of twenty million naira without the customers’ authorisation.

The accused, a native of Umudiale Ohom Orba, Nsukka in Enugu State was said to have forged various banking instruments like fixed deposit certificate booklets, Community Bank savings withdrawal slips belonging to several customers with which she withdrew huge sums of money from different accounts with the bank between 2010 and 2011 using her position as a senior manager of the bank

However, when the charge was read to her, she pleaded not guilty. Defence counsel Mr. J .O Olobo prayed the court to grant the accused person bail as the alleged offence was a bailable one.

The prosecuting counsel Marshal Umukoro Onome did not oppose the bail application.

The case was adjourned to November 19, 2012 for trial.