ABUJA — In what many political analysts are calling a historic case of political déjà vu, the grand opposition coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has effectively crumbled. The exit of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) on May 3, 2026, marks the second time in four years that Atiku Abubakar’s presidential insistence has shattered a major opposition front.
Sources close to the negotiations reveal that Atiku’s strategy for the ADC was a mirror image of his 2022 PDP playbook. By attempting to lure Obi and Kwankwaso into the ADC, Atiku reportedly aimed to force a “dollarized” primary where his financial muscle would guarantee the ticket. The calculation was simple: once the primary process began, the Electoral Act would have legally barred Obi and Kwankwaso from seeking alternative platforms. However, having learned from the 2023 “G-5” and Labour Party fallout, Obi moved before the trap could snap shut. Obi’s statement upon joining the NDC—that he seeks a platform devoid of transactional politics—is being viewed as a direct indictment of Atiku’s methodology.
Critics are now pointing to a pattern of political scorched earth. In 2023, Atiku’s refusal to honor the North-South zoning agreement led to the fracturing of the PDP and the rise of the “Obidient” movement. Today, history has repeated itself. Once touted as a “super-party,” the ADC is now being derisively nicknamed “Atiku’s Disciples Congress” by former allies who claim the party’s structures were pre-loaded to favor the former Vice President. By insisting on running in 2027 when many expected a Southern consensus candidate,
Atiku has once again alienated the Southern base, effectively handing the ADC the reputation of a regional Northern party. The symbolic nail in the coffin for Atiku’s relevance may have been the defection of his own son, Abba Atiku Abubakar, to the APC earlier this year—a move that signaled even his inner circle has lost faith in the perennial candidate strategy.
With the formalization of the “OK Movement” under the Nigeria Democratic Congress, the opposition has effectively moved on without Atiku. While he remains in control of a hollowed-out ADC, he now faces a three-way opposition split that almost guarantees a clear path for the incumbency. As one Southern political leader put it, Atiku refused to be a kingmaker, so he may end his career as a king of nothing. He played a smart game, but Obi and Kwankwaso were playing chess while he was still playing checkers.
The 2027 race now enters a new phase, with the NDC positioned as the primary rescue vehicle, leaving the Atiku camp to reflect on a miscalculation that may have finally ended the political relevance of the Waziri of Adamawa.
