ABUJA — A comprehensive financial investigation into Nigeria’s public ledgers reveals an unprecedented fiscal paradox: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has commanded access to more nominal Naira resources in under three years than the combined allocations of multiple previous administrations.
Through a potent mix of foreign exchange floating, fuel subsidy removal, an aggressive tax drive, and extensive domestic and foreign debt issuances, the total financial resource envelope available to the current government between May 2023 and mid-2026 is estimated at a staggering ₦125 trillion to ₦140 trillion.
Yet across the country, citizens and civil society organizations continue to confront an urgent question: With record-breaking cash flowing into federal and state coffers every month, why is the real purchasing power of government spending continuing to shrink?
EDITORIAL NOTE
“The numbers in the official ledger are undeniable. The Tinubu administration is not starved of cash—it is presiding over the largest nominal Naira resource envelope in West African history. The fundamental crisis Nigeria faces today is not a revenue generation failure, but a drastic collapse in purchasing power and fiscal accountability.”
1. Breakdown of Financial Inflows (May 2023 – Mid-2026)
Between non-oil tax surges, customs duties, oil royalty adjustments, independent agency TSA sweeps, and unprecedented borrowing, the federal government’s total available liquidity has reached levels previously unimaginable in Nigerian public finance.
| Inflow Category | Estimated Total (Naira) | Key Drivers & Primary Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Federation & Non-Oil Revenues (NRS Tax, Customs, FAAC) | ~₦75 Trillion – ₦85 Trillion | Boosted by FX market unification, VAT growth, CIT, and subsidy removal. |
| New Debt Financing & Loans (Domestic Bonds, Eurobonds, Multilateral) | ~₦50 Trillion – ₦55 Trillion | Deficit financing via domestic FGN bonds, Treasury Bills, and World Bank facilities. |
| Total Available Resource Envelope | ~₦125 Trillion – ₦140 Trillion | Combined total of non-debt government collections and gross borrowings. |
Tax revenue collections under the restructured Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) jumped from ₦711 billion per month in May 2023 to record monthly gross collections exceeding ₦3.635 trillion. Simultaneously, Nigeria’s public debt stock surged from ₦87.38 trillion in Q2 2023 to over ₦150 trillion, driven by fresh borrowings and the official exchange-rate revaluation of existing foreign currency loans.
2. Historical Comparison: Tinubu vs. Buhari vs. Jonathan vs. Obasanjo
To understand the sheer magnitude of funds flowing through the current administration, 247ureports.com analyzed historical revenue trends across four political eras in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic:
| Administration & Period | Cumulative Nominal Revenues & Borrowings | Average Exchange Rate | Real Dollar Capacity (Purchasing Power) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olusegun Obasanjo (1999 – 2007) | ~₦12 Trillion – ₦15 Trillion | ~₦100 – ₦130 / $1 | ~$120 Billion (Paid off $18B Paris Club debt) |
| Goodluck Jonathan (2010 – 2015) | ~₦25 Trillion – ₦30 Trillion | ~₦150 – ₦197 / $1 | ~$380 Billion – $450 Billion (Peak global oil boom at $100+/barrel) |
| Muhammadu Buhari (2015 – 2023) | ~₦70 Trillion (8-year cumulative) | ~₦305 – ₦460 / $1 | ~$170 Billion – $190 Billion |
| Bola Ahmed Tinubu (May 2023 – Mid-2026) | ~₦125 Trillion – ₦140 Trillion | ~₦1,310 / $1 avg | ~$85 Billion – $95 Billion (Devaluation multiplier effect) |
3. The FAAC Allocation Surge Across the 36 States
At the state level, governor allocations distributed through the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) have more than doubled in nominal terms:
- Buhari Era (Final 36 Months: May 2020 – April 2023): State governments collectively received ₦7.6 trillion.
- Tinubu Era (First 36 Months: May 2023 – March 2026): State governments collectively received ₦17.3 trillion—representing a 127% increase in nominal Naira terms.
36 STATES' FAAC ALLOCATIONS (3-YEAR COMPARISON) ======================================================================== Buhari Era (2020 - 2023) : ₦7.6 Trillion (~$18.5 Billion equivalent) Tinubu Era (2023 - 2026) : ₦17.3 Trillion (~$13.2 Billion equivalent) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NOMINAL NAIRA GROWTH : +127% INCREASE REAL DOLLAR CAPACITY : -28.6% DECLINE ========================================================================
Top Beneficiaries vs. Lowest Recipients
Due to the 13% Derivation Fund for oil producers and high internal tax bases, top-earning states received disproportionately large allocations:
- Lagos State: Over ₦530 Billion annually (driven by high VAT returns and population adjustments).
- Delta State: Over ₦450 Billion
- Rivers State: Over ₦350 Billion
- Akwa Ibom State: Over ₦280 Billion
In contrast, landlocked and non-mineral states like Nasarawa, Ebonyi, Ekiti, and Kwara averaged between ₦108 billion and ₦112 billion annually over the same period.
4. The Devaluation Trap: Millions of Naira, Eroded Purchasing Power
The central key to understanding the Tinubu financial surge lies in the collapse of the official exchange rate.
When the official exchange rate was adjusted from ~₦460/$1 in May 2023 to over ₦1,400/$1, dollar-denominated revenue sources—including crude oil sales, petroleum royalties, and foreign customs duties—automatically multiplied three-fold when converted into Naira for domestic allocation.
- The Nominal Paper Illusion: While monthly FAAC disbursements routinely cross ₦2 trillion to ₦2.5 trillion, the actual volume of goods, infrastructure projects, and imported machinery those funds can purchase is lower than during the Obasanjo or Jonathan eras.
- Debt Servicing Strain: Over 50% to 65% of retained federal revenue continues to go toward servicing domestic and foreign debt, leaving a compressed budget for capital infrastructure.
- Automatic Deductions at Source: State governments faced over ₦800 billion in automatic deductions at source in 2024 alone for previous bailouts, foreign loan obligations, and Irrevocable Standing Payment Orders (ISPOs).
“The Tinubu administration faces no liquidity bottleneck in domestic currency terms. The challenge for 2026 and beyond is whether these unprecedented nominal allocations to federal agencies and state governors will translate into tangible development—roads, healthcare, security, and agricultural output—or remain locked in the high-cost machinery of government.”nderstanding the Tinubu financial surge lies in the collapse of the official exchange rate.
When the official exchange rate was adjusted from ~₦460/$1 in May 2023 to over ₦1,400/$1, dollar-denominated revenue sources—including crude oil sales, petroleum royalties, and foreign customs duties—automatically multiplied three-fold when converted into Naira for domestic allocation.
EDITOR’S TAKEAWAY
- The Nominal Paper Illusion: While monthly FAAC disbursements routinely cross ₦2 trillion to ₦2.5 trillion, the actual volume of goods, infrastructure projects, and imported machinery those funds can purchase is lower than during the Obasanjo or Jonathan eras.
- Debt Servicing Strain: Over 50% to 65% of retained federal revenue continues to go toward servicing domestic and foreign debt, leaving a compressed budget for capital infrastructure.
- Automatic Deductions at Source: State governments faced over ₦800 billion in automatic deductions at source in 2024 alone for previous bailouts, foreign loan obligations, and Irrevocable Standing Payment Orders (ISPOs).
EDITOR’S TAKEAWAY
“The Tinubu administration faces no liquidity bottleneck in domestic currency terms. The challenge for 2026 and beyond is whether these unprecedented nominal allocations to federal agencies and state governors will translate into tangible development—roads, healthcare, security, and agricultural output—or remain locked in the high-cost machinery of government.”
