Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama has a five- point lead in Ohio while Republican challenger Mitt Romney has all but erased earlier deficits in Florida and Virginia, according to a poll of likely voters in three swing states released today.
The narrowing of the race in competitive states mirrors a national trend in which several recent polls show the race tied or one candidate ahead by a single percentage point.
A CBS Times/New York Times/Quinnipiac University survey gave Obama a 50 percent to 45 percent edge in Ohio, a state without which a Republican has never won the White House. Obama has led by six to 10 points in earlier CBS/Times/Quinnipiac polls.
In Florida, Obama had a one-point advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent, after leading by nine points a month earlier. His 49 percent to 47 percent edge in Virginia is less than half of the five-point spread found in a poll earlier this month.
“After being subjected to what seems like a zillion dollars’ worth of television ads and personal attention from the two candidates reminiscent of a high-school crush, the key swing states of Florida and Virginia are too close to call with the election only days away,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute in Hamden, Connecticut.
The states are among the battlegrounds that political observers of both parties say will decide which candidate wins the presidency.
Favorable Opinion
Romney’s surge in the polls tracks an increase in the percentage of voters who have a favorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor. He’s in positive territory for the first time in Florida, with 48 percent viewing him favorably and 47 percent unfavorably. In Virginia, he has a 49 percent favorable rating and a 46 percent unfavorable one, his biggest positive spread to date. Only in Ohio does a plurality still view him unfavorably, 48 percent, compared with 46 percent who view him favorably.
Majorities of voters in all three states view Obama favorably, 51 percent in Florida and 52 percent in Ohio and Virginia.
Voters in all three states cited the economy as the top issue. Romney had an edge over Obama on that issue in two of the states, 49 percent to 47 percent in Florida and 50 percent to 46 percent in Virginia.
Auto Bailout
Obama held a 49 percent to 48 percent advantage on the economy in Ohio, where one in eight jobs is connected to the auto industry. Obama backed the use of government funds to rescue General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, while Romney was proposing that they go through bankruptcy with private funding. Mike Jackson, chief executive officer of AutoNation Inc., the largest U.S. auto-dealer group, has said it was a “fantasy” that private financing was available.
Romney is running an ad in Ohio saying that Chrysler plans to move production of Jeeps to China. Obama has responded with an ad calling Romney’s spot dishonest. Chrysler, majority-owned by Fiat SpA of Italy, is retaining and expanding its Jeep production in North America, including in Toledo. It also is deciding whether to expand into China, the world’s largest auto market.
By 37 percent to 25 percent in Florida, 52 percent to 17 percent in Ohio and 39 percent to 19 percent in Virginia, voters said their state’s economy was getting better rather than worse, and at least two-thirds in each state who said the economy was improving said Obama deserved a lot or some of the credit.
Middle-Class Aid
Likely voters said Obama would do a better job than Romney on helping the middle class by 51 percent to 44 percent in Florida, 54 percent to 42 percent in Ohio and 52 percent to 44 percent in Virginia.
“In general, voters prefer Obama on a majority of issues and characteristics and rate the two candidates roughly even on the big one — the economy,” Brown said. “Likely voters think Obama better understands their needs and problems, but more voters see Romney as a strong leader.”
The Oct. 23-28 telephone surveys of 1,073 likely voters in Florida and 1,074 likely voters in Virginia had margins of error of three percentage points; the Ohio survey of 1,110 likely voters had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
CBS/Times Poll
Separately, a national CBS News/New York Times poll taken before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast put Obama ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters. Obama led Romney 49 percent to 46 percent in the poll last month.
In the CBS/New York Times poll, Obama was ahead among women, 52 percent to 44 percent, while Romney led among men, 51 percent to 44 percent.
Romney held a 51 percent to 45 percent edge on which candidate would do a better job on the economy and jobs, and a 54 percent to 39 percent advantage on the budget deficit.
While the nation’s unemployment rate slid to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest level since Obama took office in January 2009, it was the first time the rate had fallen below 8 percent in 44 months.
The national CBS/Times survey found voters, by 51 percent to 39 percent, supporting Obama over Romney on abortion rights. Romney has called for the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that privacy rights entitle women to choose to have an abortion without restriction in their first trimester of pregnancy.
Medicare Bill
Obama also had an edge on handling Medicare, 51 percent to 42 percent. Romney’s running mate, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, has sponsored House-passed legislation that would replace traditional Medicare for future recipients 10 years from now with vouchers to buy private insurance or a government plan with a cap on expenditures.
The poll of 563 likely voters taken Oct. 25-28 had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
A survey released yesterday of Hispanic Christian voters showed Obama with a 63 percent to 26 percent lead over Romney. The poll by Gaston Espinosa, a professor of religious studies at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, California, cited immigration as a key issue in keeping Hispanics in Obama’s camp.
Even so, Espinosa said, undecided Hispanic Christian voters who are socially conservative might break in favor of Romney, who opposes same-sex marriage.
Romney ‘Opening’
This “could provide Romney with precisely the opening he needs to win over a small but vitally important slice of Latino undecided voters in key swing states who can help him win,” Espinosa said.
The Oct. 4-10 survey of 1,000 likely Hispanic voters who are either Roman Catholic or Protestant had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Obama announced in June that the administration would no longer deport undocumented residents who were brought to the U.S. as children, have lived in the country for at least five years, had no criminal record, and were in school or had a high school diploma or the equivalent.
Romney earlier this year suggested that undocumented immigrants self-deport and described as “amnesty” any efforts to give them legal status without first requiring that they leave the country. Then, during an Oct. 16 debate with Obama, he said he supports the president’s action to let the children of illegal immigrants stay in the country legally.
In an interview this month with the Des Moines Register, Obama said he’s confident he can get an overhaul of immigration law through Congress next year if he’s re-elected.
–
–Editors: Leslie Hoffecker, Steven Komarow
To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net
