By: Daure David
Nasir El-Rufai’s political career in Nigeria is a study of shifting alliances, strategic realignments, and, most notably, the betrayal of former allies who helped propel him to power. His political journey has been one of opportunism, calculated decisions, and power plays that left many of his once-close allies wondering where they went wrong. By examining El-Rufai’s relationships with key political figures in Nigeria, we can better understand how his political maneuvers have shaped not just his career, but also Nigeria’s political landscape.
1. Atiku Abubakar: The First Major Betrayal
Atiku Abubakar, the former Vice President of Nigeria (1999-2007), played an instrumental role in bringing Nasir El-Rufai into government. In the early 2000s, Atiku, who had significant influence in the Obasanjo administration, recommended El-Rufai to become the Director-General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE). This was a pivotal moment in El-Rufai’s career, as the role placed him at the forefront of Nigeria’s privatization efforts.
However, when Atiku fell out with President Olusegun Obasanjo, El-Rufai made a calculated decision to align with Obasanjo rather than his former benefactor. This was a key turning point in his political career. Instead of standing by Atiku, El-Rufai sided with the sitting president, publicly distancing himself from Atiku and even offering damaging testimonies about his former mentor during the allegations of corruption that plagued Atiku’s political career.
El-Rufai’s decision to betray Atiku was likely a matter of political pragmatism. At the time, Obasanjo was the more powerful political figure, and El-Rufai saw an opportunity to advance his career by aligning himself with the incumbent president. In choosing to support Obasanjo, El-Rufai not only solidified his position but also effectively sealed his relationship with Atiku. The question that remains, however, is whether Atiku has forgiven El-Rufai. That, it seems, only time will tell.
2. Goodluck Jonathan: The Opposition Blogger
After the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010, the then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan assumed the presidency. El-Rufai, having been exiled due to his involvement in corruption charges, was given an opportunity to return to Nigeria. However, instead of reconciling with the new administration, El-Rufai chose to become one of Jonathan’s fiercest critics. He joined the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) and played a key role in discrediting Jonathan’s government ahead of the 2015 elections.
There were two main reasons behind this shift. First, El-Rufai harbored a personal vendetta against Jonathan’s administration due to the corruption charges that were brought against him. El-Rufai believed these charges were politically motivated and, given that Jonathan had been the Vice President during that period, he saw the new president as someone who did not intervene on his behalf. Second, from a political strategy perspective, El-Rufai aligned himself with the APC and its candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, because it offered him a more promising future. By supporting Buhari, El-Rufai secured a prominent role within the APC and eventually became the Governor of Kaduna State after the 2015 elections.
In positioning himself against Jonathan, El-Rufai helped the APC secure a victory in 2015. However, this act also further cemented his reputation as a politician who quickly abandons former allies when the political wind changes direction. This was the first instance of El-Rufai’s ruthless political opportunism, and it would not be the last.
3. Muhammadu Buhari: The Shift from Loyalist to Critic
El-Rufai’s relationship with Muhammadu Buhari was initially one of loyalty and mutual support. In the years leading up to the 2015 presidential elections, El-Rufai was one of Buhari’s most vocal and influential supporters. His role as a key member of the APC helped propel Buhari to the presidency, and in return, El-Rufai became one of the most prominent figures within the party, eventually securing the governorship of Kaduna State.
However, as Buhari’s tenure wore on, cracks began to appear in their relationship. El-Rufai, who had once been a staunch loyalist, began to openly criticize the Buhari administration. One of the most notable instances of this shift occurred when El-Rufai criticized the controversial naira redesign policy, which he argued was causing unnecessary economic hardship for Nigerians. His criticism of the policy was seen by many as a move to distance himself from an increasingly unpopular president.
El-Rufai’s open dissent toward Buhari also raised questions about his political allegiance. As Buhari’s approval ratings declined due to a combination of economic challenges, insecurity, and internal APC divisions, El-Rufai’s shift in tone appeared to be a strategic move to preserve his political capital and position himself for the post-Buhari era. His critiques of Buhari, along with subtle efforts to distance himself from the president’s inner circle, made it clear that El-Rufai was positioning himself for future power struggles within the APC.
El-Rufai’s ability to pivot politically has made him a key figure in Nigerian politics, but it has also made him a figure of suspicion. His willingness to publicly criticize a former ally as soon as it served his interests has reinforced the perception that he is primarily driven by self-interest and power.
4. Bola Ahmed Tinubu: A Fragile Alliance
In the 2023 presidential election, El-Rufai was once again at the heart of political machinations. While he initially seemed to back the candidacy of Rotimi Amaechi, another APC stalwart, El-Rufai ultimately aligned himself with Bola Ahmed Tinubu when it became clear that Tinubu would be the APC’s flag bearer. El-Rufai’s support for Tinubu was seen by some as a strategic move to secure his future political relevance, given that Tinubu was widely expected to win the presidency.
However, their relationship has always been fragile. El-Rufai and Tinubu have long been influential figures within the APC, but they have never fully trusted each other. The fallout came when El-Rufai was nominated for a ministerial position in Tinubu’s government after the 2023 election, only for the nomination to be blocked. While El-Rufai did not publicly fight for the position, his withdrawal from the process was seen by some as a way to avoid embarrassment after his security clearance was reportedly denied.
The reasons behind El-Rufai’s blocked appointment remain unclear, but it raises important questions about the dynamics of his relationship with Tinubu. Despite their cooperation during the election, El-Rufai’s sudden withdrawal from the ministerial race signals that their political alliance may not be as strong as it appears. It remains to be seen whether El-Rufai will challenge Tinubu in 2027 or continue to navigate the complex power dynamics within the APC.
A Politician of Opportunism
Nasir El-Rufai’s political journey is one that has been defined by shifting alliances and strategic betrayals. From his initial betrayal of Atiku Abubakar to his subsequent turns against Goodluck Jonathan, Muhammadu Buhari, and his current delicate relationship with Bola Tinubu, El-Rufai’s political maneuvers have been marked by self-preservation and a sharp focus on maintaining his relevance in an ever-changing political landscape.
Whether El-Rufai’s willingness to betray former allies will ultimately lead to his downfall or further solidify his political prowess remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: his ability to navigate power at the expense of those around him has earned him a reputation as one of Nigeria’s most astute, yet controversial, political figures.
As the 2027 elections loom on the horizon, it will be interesting to see if El-Rufai continues to play his cards close to his chest or if he takes a more overt challenge to the APC leadership. Whatever path he chooses, the politics of betrayal will likely continue to define his career. Time, as always, will tell.
