US top think-tank, Brookings, project Jonathan win; say APC is a fragile anti-Jonathan setup

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Brookings, the Worldโ€™s most influential think-tank based in the United States, have projected a President Jonathan victory over the opposition candidateโ€™s General Buhari in the 2015 Electionsย which it suggestsย would be keenly contested.

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The analysis, context and rationale of the think-tankโ€™s projections is contained in the Brookings publication titled: Foresight Africa โ€“ Top Priorities for the continent (January 2015).

โ€œThough the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still favor President Jonathan.โ€™

According to Brookings, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a fragile anti-jonathan establishment with a sole purpose to return power to the north.

โ€œThe party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power โ€œreturnedโ€ to the northโ€

โ€œThe APC gets much of its strength from tap- ping into anti-Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments.โ€

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The Report also indicated that the APCโ€™s strategy is hinged on a combination of popular votes from the North West, North East and โ€œthe battleground SouthWestโ€ but also hinted at the possibility of Bola Ahmed Tinubu not delivering the region contrary to speculations.

โ€œWhat remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubuโ€”a former governor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the formation of the APC and is considered to be the partyโ€™s strongest mobi- lizer in the southwestโ€”will be very enthusias- tic in delivering the battleground southwest to the APC during the elections.โ€

โ€œTinubu indicated his interest in being the partyโ€™s vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the partyโ€™s strategists felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the PDPโ€™s labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.โ€

On President Jonathanโ€™s performance: โ€œdespite Boko Haramโ€”the country is thriving: The economy continues to grow andโ€”with the re- basing of its GDPโ€”became the largest econo- my in Africa and the 26th largest in the world. Jonathanโ€™s supporters also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions around the world.โ€

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The Brookings Report also identified factors such as incumbency and numerical control of States where PDP has 21 States and APC only 14 as giving PDP an edge.

โ€œThe greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its โ€œpower of incumbency,โ€ and all the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does it have federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutionsโ€

The report advised that all efforts should beย deployed to ensure a free, fair and transparent elections and to avoid a meltdown as post-election violence seems very likely.

โ€œPost-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC loses while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan does.โ€ the report noted.

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– See more at: http://www.reubenabati.com.ng/2015-01-18-US-top-think-tank-Brookings-project-Jonathan-win-say-APC-is-a-fragile-anti-Jonathan-setup.html#sthash.6C08iQRA.0TZNVPjO.dpuf

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