Brookings, the Worldโs most influential think-tank based in the United States, have projected a President Jonathan victory over the opposition candidateโs General Buhari in the 2015 Electionsย which it suggestsย would be keenly contested.
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.The analysis, context and rationale of the think-tankโs projections is contained in the Brookings publication titled: Foresight Africa โ Top Priorities for the continent (January 2015).
โThough the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still favor President Jonathan.โ
According to Brookings, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a fragile anti-jonathan establishment with a sole purpose to return power to the north.
โThe party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power โreturnedโ to the northโ
โThe APC gets much of its strength from tap- ping into anti-Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments.โ
The Report also indicated that the APCโs strategy is hinged on a combination of popular votes from the North West, North East and โthe battleground SouthWestโ but also hinted at the possibility of Bola Ahmed Tinubu not delivering the region contrary to speculations.
โWhat remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubuโa former governor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the formation of the APC and is considered to be the partyโs strongest mobi- lizer in the southwestโwill be very enthusias- tic in delivering the battleground southwest to the APC during the elections.โ
โTinubu indicated his interest in being the partyโs vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the partyโs strategists felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the PDPโs labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.โ
On President Jonathanโs performance: โdespite Boko Haramโthe country is thriving: The economy continues to grow andโwith the re- basing of its GDPโbecame the largest econo- my in Africa and the 26th largest in the world. Jonathanโs supporters also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions around the world.โ
The Brookings Report also identified factors such as incumbency and numerical control of States where PDP has 21 States and APC only 14 as giving PDP an edge.
โThe greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its โpower of incumbency,โ and all the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does it have federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutionsโ
The report advised that all efforts should beย deployed to ensure a free, fair and transparent elections and to avoid a meltdown as post-election violence seems very likely.
โPost-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC loses while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan does.โ the report noted.
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