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By 247ureports.com
Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Policy Communication, has predicted that Tinubu will defeat his 2027 presidential rivals by a far wider margin than he achieved in 2023, dismissing suggestions that the president’s narrow first-round victory makes him vulnerable heading into the next election.
The Prediction
Speaking Tuesday on Channels Television’s “Politics Today,” Bwala said: “Let me tell you and let me say it categorically, and I will be happy to come back, the gap that President Bola Tinubu will give each and every one of these candidates will be so much that you won’t believe it.” Pressed on what gives him that confidence given arguments that Tinubu’s 2023 win was relatively narrow, Bwala responded: “All of the statistics and results you read out which happened before President Bola Tinubu won the election at that time, there was nobody who did not know that the odds were not in his favour” — arguing Tinubu overcame unfavorable odds once already and would do so again, this time more decisively.
His Reasoning: Governors
Bwala grounded his confidence primarily in a shift in gubernatorial alignment. He pointed to the growing number of state governors who have defected from opposition parties to the APC since 2023, particularly citing gains in the North-East, and predicted even more governors would back Tinubu in 2027 than did in 2023 — arguing governors carry significant influence over political structures and mobilisation within their states.
2023’s Numbers as the Baseline
Tinubu won the 2023 election with 8,794,726 votes, defeating Atiku Abubakar of the PDP by roughly 1.81 million votes and Peter Obi of the Labour Party by about 2.69 million votes — a win achieved with just over a third of the total votes cast, in a four-way race that included Rabiu Kwankwaso in fourth place.
A Mixed Polling Picture
Bwala’s bullish prediction stands in some tension with recent polling data. An Oxford-Metro Analytics poll that closed September 7, 2026, gave Tinubu a lead of just over 35% against Obi’s roughly 34% and Atiku’s nearly 27% — a gap of just over 1,000 responses out of more than 69,000 cast, with Tinubu leading in 20 states and the FCT, up from 12 in 2023. Separately, the SBM Intelligence Voter Sentiment Tracker has put Tinubu’s net favourability at minus 58.5, the lowest of any candidate tracked, with his approval scores on major policy areas failing to exceed 2.1 out of 4 in any category.
Background: From Atiku’s Camp to Tinubu’s Cabinet
Bwala’s current role as one of Tinubu’s most prominent defenders marks a sharp reversal from his political origins. He served as a vocal aide and media spokesperson for Atiku Abubakar’s 2023 presidential campaign, during which he was a persistent critic of Tinubu — at one point alleging Tinubu had created a militia to corruptly sway the election, and separately suggesting that even thirty years in office would not allow Tinubu to achieve meaningful results. After Atiku’s defeat, Bwala moved into Tinubu’s camp, and was formally appointed Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications in 2024, a transition that drew significant criticism and accusations of opportunism from both his former allies and segments of the public.
That history resurfaced dramatically in March 2026, when Bwala appeared on Al Jazeera’s “Head to Head” with host Mehdi Hasan for an episode examining the Tinubu administration under the theme “Nigeria: ‘Renewed Hope’ or ‘Hopelessness’?” Hasan confronted Bwala directly with old clips and quotes from his opposition days, including his January 2023 militia allegation and past comments about suspicious cash movements linked to Tinubu’s residence. Bwala repeatedly denied making the statements on air — “Tinubu didn’t create a militia, and I never said that,” he told Hasan — despite the remarks being on record. At one point, Hasan reportedly asked him directly whether he agreed with his own past self. Bwala later defended his performance, accusing Al Jazeera of “fake news” and ambush tactics, and argued the network had failed to disclose it would challenge him on his past statements during six months of pre-interview communication. He characterized his earlier anti-Tinubu remarks as “all politics” from his time in opposition. The episode drew sustained public mockery and criticism, including from Atiku’s camp, which accused Bwala of a “woeful” showing and argued the interview exposed direct contradictions between his past and present positions, further alleging Bwala had once asked Atiku’s media team to publicize a claim that Tinubu’s camp had threatened his life — a request the team said it declined to act on.
Bwala’s Shifting Assessments
Since joining the administration, Bwala has made a series of pointed public predictions about the opposition field, including an earlier remark expressing concern that Atiku could finish in a “distant fourth” place in 2027, potentially trailing both Obi and Kwankwaso.
