• Post-primary fallout triggers state-wide protests, leadership factions
• Northern stakeholders issue ’12 Noon Defeat’ ultimatum over Shettima, key appointments
• National Secretariat rules out review of controversial primary results
ABUJA — The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has been thrown into a fresh, unprecedented internal crisis capable of altering the country’s political landscape ahead of the next general elections.
The party is currently battling a multi-layered rebellion. On one front, a fierce post-primary election fallout is tearing state chapters apart. On a more existential front, an aggressive revolt by powerful Northern stakeholders has emerged, with members openly protesting the alleged systematic marginalization of Northern Nigeria by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration and threatening a mass exit from the party.
The Northern Rebellion: Grievances Over Sidelining and the ‘Shettima Snub’
The most potent threat to the party’s survival is the brewing insurrection within its Northern caucus. High-ranking Northern APC stakeholders and grassroots mobilization groups have expressed deep-seated anger over what they term the economic and structural isolation of the region that delivered the highest block of votes to secure President Tinubu’s victory.
1. Monopoly of “Lucrative” Portfolios
Northern loyalists allege that the presidency has systematically favored the Southwest in the allocation of critical economic and security apparatuses. They point to the concentration of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and key security agencies under Southern heads as clear evidence of regional imbalance. Members of the party’s defunct founding blocs—specifically the former All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) and sections of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)—complain they have been completely shut out of federal boards and strategic parastatals.
2. The Plot Against Vice President Shettima
Tensions reached a boiling point across the North-East and North-West chapters following a series of strategic party meetings. Tempers flared into physical chaos after high-ranking party figures, including former National Chairman Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, endorsed President Tinubu for a second term but conspicuously omitted any endorsement or mention of Vice President Kashim Shettima. Northern loyalists have interpreted this omission as a calculated plot to drop Shettima as the vice-presidential running mate in the next election.
In a swift reaction, groups like the North-Central APC Forum issued a stern ultimatum to the Presidency. They warned that any attempt to tamper with the current presidency-vice presidency dynamic or bow to pressure to drop Shettima would result in the immediate withdrawal of up to 80% of Northern Muslim block votes.
3. Economic and Infrastructure Disparities
Elite Northern political blocs, amplified by vocal former lawmakers like Muhammad Kazaure, have openly condemned the administration’s aggressive economic policies—specifically fuel subsidy removals and the floating currency regime. They argue these policies have disproportionately devastated the economic fabric of the North. Furthermore, critics within the party are furious that major northern transport corridors, such as the Abuja–Kaduna–Zaria–Kano expressway, face constant delays, while massive capital allocations are pumped into southern mega-projects like the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway.
State Chapters in Disarray Over Contentious Primaries
Compounding the regional rebellion is a massive wave of internal crises following the conclusion of nationwide primary elections. Aggrieved party loyalists have accused state governors and the party leadership of imposing unpopular consensus candidates, manipulating delegate lists, and sidelining legitimate contenders.
Despite mounting petitions, the APC National Secretariat has firmly ruled out any review or alteration of the controversial primary outcomes. This rigid stance has forced the National Working Committee (NWC) into emergency damage-control mode as several key states slide into political disarray:
- Lagos State: Pre-election protests have rocked the Lagos State House of Assembly and several Local Government Areas (LGAs). In the Alimosho constituency, grassroots members are actively protesting an alleged plot to replace a popular local representative with an imposed candidate who reportedly finished last in the internal counts.
- Kwara State: Severe divisions have emerged following the controversial primary victory of the House of Assembly Speaker, Danladi-Salihu, which local party elders and strategic voting blocs have strongly rejected.
- Rivers State: Internal fractures have deepened following chaotic consensus arrangements, prompting rival groups like the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to capitalize on the eroded internal democracy to poaching aggrieved APC members.
- Osun State: The state chapter faces a severe crisis of direction, leaving members completely divided over future electoral and re-election strategies.
The “12 Noon Defeat” Ultimatum and Party Counter-Offensive
Seeing the growing frustration within the ruling party, rival political platforms and emerging multi-party mega-coalitions are aggressively courting disgruntled Northern heavyweights.
Northern elites have handed down a chilling warning to the APC National Secretariat: if the perceived regional imbalances are not rectified through an immediate cabinet reshuffle and infrastructural reallocation, they will execute a coordinated mass defection. They predict that without Northern backing—which accounted for roughly 64% of the ruling party’s baseline victory votes—Tinubu’s future electoral bids “will be defeated by 12 noon” on election day.
However, pro-Tinubu Northern officials have launched a fierce counter-offensive to contain the panic. Minister of Defence, Bello Matawalle, aggressively pushed back against the dissenting factions, labeling the protesting Northern groups as “hypocrites.” Matawalle maintained that no single region has a constitutional monopoly over the political survival of the president, urging party members to remain loyal to the administration’s renewed hope agenda.
As the National Working Committee setup reconciliation panels to review appeals on the orders of President Tinubu, political analysts watch closely to see if these emergency committees can heal wounds deep enough to threaten the ruling party’s hold on power.
