ABUJA — A wave of regional discontent is sweeping through Northern Nigeria as influential groups and commentators accuse President Bola Tinubu of prioritizing security funding in the South to safeguard his 2027 re-election bid, while leaving the North in a “state of war.”
The latest spark in this growing firestorm comes from reports and social media commentary alleging that the administration swiftly deploys “heavy funds” to tackle southern insecurity because the region is viewed as more politically vital for the upcoming election cycle.
Allegations of Selective Protection
Critics, including regional monitors like Arewa Source, claim that while the North-West and North-Central regions are being devastated by banditry and kidnappings, the federal government appears more focused on stabilizing the South. The narrative gaining ground is that the Presidency is “managing” northern insecurity as a bargaining chip for 2027, rather than treating it as a national emergency.
“All the rumors you are hearing will happen once Tinubu gets his reelection,” one popular sentiment reads. “Once insecurity started in the South, he sent heavy funds to tackle it immediately because they are more important.”
A “State of War” in the North
The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) has recently escalated its rhetoric, declaring that the security situation in the North has reached a “state of war.” The ACF has accused the administration of “neglecting and sidelining” the region despite it providing a massive chunk of the votes that brought Tinubu to power in 2023.
In a direct challenge to the government’s priorities, northern youth groups have issued a stark ultimatum: “Secure our lives or forget our votes in 2027.” They argue that the administration’s obsession with political continuity is blinding it to the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in the North.
The Government’s Defence
The Presidency and the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, have repeatedly dismissed these claims as misinformation. Ribadu maintains that the administration is winning the war on terror and that security funding is distributed based on operational needs, not political maps.
Officials point to ongoing military operations in the North-East and North-West as proof of commitment. However, the recent appointment of a Special Adviser on Homeland Security—a move seen by some as an attempt to centralize control over security narratives—has only fueled suspicions that the government is more interested in managing the “optics” of security than the reality on the ground.
Political Fallout
As the 2027 political season approaches, the “security gap” has become a central campaign issue. With the newly formed opposition coalition, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), positioning itself to capitalize on northern dissatisfaction, the Tinubu administration faces a critical choice: prove its commitment to the North through measurable results, or risk a total collapse of its regional support base.
