Futurism, a study into the future ,not necessarily on how to control or atleast influence or predict it, but largely how to be able to adjust to , and chart ways to survive it. Attention to this specialisation becomes more impending for the fact that 2015 appears to be the most critical period in the political history of Nigeria. It was the period that leading circles in the United States of America, of all countries, predicated its collapse and the eventual demise of Nigeria, about ten years ago. The period also posits all threats for same collapse, this time disintegration if the current president Dr. Good luck Ebele Jonathan do not continue beyond it by kin’s/tribesmen of Mr. President. It’s a year that has many pending court cases, more than any other president challenging the validity of same President to contest in view of the six years he has so Far spent in office regardless of reasons he was there as President, Federal Republic of Nigeria and Commander in chief. The year 2015 marks 16 years of Peoples Democratic Party {PDP} as ruling party in the country. Hence the year becomes acceptable barometer to measure how the party utalised the 16 years in impacting positively on the national development process. In practical terms, the year becomes evaluation period to determine the successes or failures of PDP in terms of healthcare standard, level and quality of education, security of lives and properties of citizens, freedom from hunger and food sufficiency, rule of law and national pride among many other indicators. An evaluation that must be done by comparing input ,i.e. financial and human resources allocated for a particular sector vis a vis the output. In otherwords no any better way of seen A government serving its people and justifying its mandate than comparing what is done to what has been paid for . The incumbent President is interested to contest in this 2015 not because he has done quite remarkably for every Nigerian to celebrate but because he needs more time to achieve what has not been done or achieved .On the other side, the period marks the functionality of the largest and most coordinated opposition party in Nigerian political history. It provides the most extensive political activism as punctuated by mass shifts largely from the ruling to opposition party. Over 3/5 of its members in 2011 have migrated to other parties, APC in particular will some like the celebrated former super minister, Labaran Maku who preferred pitching his camp with the Cock {APGA}. The composition. Articulation, redirection and the mission sharply designed to change Nigeria makes the APC the largest and strongest opposition party Nigeria has had in its political history. A portent force that makes the sitting President resorts to defenses in the later phase of his campaign with personal analyses of the opposition presidential candidate at the earlier phase with the fullest fierceness. One can see the turbulence in the ruling party’s campaign in the manner they launched series of personality attack on the principal contestant of the Presidency. Members of his family, religion and career were not spared. The aggressiveness of the campaign was perfected when Fayose invoked death to take the contestant for the opposition.
A flash point in 2015 dynamics is the assurances to contain Boko Haram by both the service Chiefs who postponed the earlier scheduled election time table and Mr President himself, and to the surprise of all, the scourge is being dealt with. The speed and the successes associated with the fight against Boko Haram keep raising question why the delay for about five years? Why such a monstrous amount of N4.4 trillion be spent on security that rendered virtually every Nigerian vulnerable and most unsecured{ {2010-2014}. Fear of BH in places of worships, in the markets, schools or motor parks, panic on the slightest outcry of an astray,, fright of kidnap etc have become the greatest preelection violence Nigerians are subjected to. Sometimes there is no terror more than psychological damages inflicted on innocent souls. .Why must the Government wait till the BH cataclysm becomes West African before containing it. For the first time, 2015 has recorded the first and largest humanitarian crises in post independent Nigeria. There are estimated 3 million people that are internally displaced with over 1 million as refugees in Niger republic, Chad and Cameroun.. With the regionalization of the BH, one asks about the Fate of these refugees. In regional and even continental trade as goods were exchanged from Maiduguri to far away Khartoum, not to mention N’djamena, Bamako or Dakar, in the last 4 wars of large scale BH operations, an estimated lost of over N100,billion was recorded. Properties lost are estimated within the values of about N 20, billion. For now, there are about 1000 kidnapped people the notables been Chibok Girls. About 15,000 people are reported killed, innocently for that. Why must all these happen? Can it be simply seen to manipulate the political machine of the country to serve an inordinate soul? Otherwise, the government has pressing duty to explain and make the public to believe that all these happen out of good intention and national service. This has direct bearings on the patterns and behaviours of voters in the most awaited 2015.
Paradoxically, Mr President was abled to visit Maiduguri the frontline zone of Boko Haram in its 5 years of active operations twice only in this 2015. One had expected the good gesture, nay the most spectacular relief packages from Mr. President on these visits on the backdrop of N 60 billion raised by the Government last August for the BH victims. Mr President offered them promises only. Are the money still in Gen T.Y Danjumas copper who was appointed to chair the fund committee? The objective of the funds raised then was succinctly spelt out by Mr President to assist the BH victims and rehabilitate the places damaged .Failure to utalise the money for it purpose would make the citizenry more disbelievers in the Government as a lot are seeing it fond of double speak, accused of always talking with the tongue in the cheek .The citizenry should be proved wrong by seeing the disbursement of the funds with dispatch to fix houses destroyed ,provide capital to small and medium enterpreneurs, rehabilate schools ,hospitals and facilitate resettlement processes for families that are traumatized or at best disorganized. The state Governments should not be the only ones decisively seen doing these. Perhaps the Chairman of the fund, a renowned philanthropist should all so be seen with his plans on how to work the money so that his substance and integrity is well preserved and continually hailed by all. National Emergency Management agency, a lot of relevant ministries and agencies by now should be seen with their plans to act on redoing the affected states which should provide clue to International bodies both Governmental,non profit organizations and supranational agencies to also intervene. This has already underscored the emergency of humanitarian intervention as towns are large people are being regained from their hostage now.This would further restore the public confidence that the rescheduled dates of the election are real as efforts at atabilisation,confidence building and future of Nigeria are seeing to be secured.
This would further make Nigerians and other International observers trust the drive of Government towards the long and much acclaimed transformation. Otherwise logic and realities of living standards in the country haven’t and cannot justify the claim of economic growth when stagflation is the major attribute that explains socioeconomic interactions today. With highest foreign exchange rate in the nation’s economic history that principally depends on foreign goods and importation, prices of goods and services are already making access to basic needs more dreadful, incredible , at best extremely difficult except for the tiny few super rich from the classes of the technocrats,Pdpians and their cronies who oversee their investments. The magi of economic growth ought to and must be seen improving the appalling conditions of Nigerians. If economy is growing it should means cheaper, affordable and easy accesabilities to health care, children’s education,security of lives and property and above all confidence in Government and trust in what it pronounces. A situation where economic growth fails to put smile on the faces of citizens and joy in their lives is everything but growth.
Additionally, available statistics from World Bank, UN, Transparency International, National Bureau of Statisitcs are placing Nigeria among the poorest in the world and with an increasingly larger class of the poor. The country has the poorest health conditions in the world with very poor and low medical facilities, quacks as practitioners in health services even in the most urbanized centres. With one of the fastest growing number of hypertension, Diabetes, Malaria and prevalence of such curable and avoidable diseases like Typhoid fever and Cholera; with one of the highest number of infant ,maternal and overall mortality rate world over are enough barometers that the country need to change for the betterment of all and more especially for the leaders to be free from been adjudged as misfits. The amount budgeted within same active period of BH {2010- 2015} about 10 trillion naira makes the whole national public policy scenario almost completely absurd. These are apparent failures regardless of deadline for International agenda of our 2015These conditions are fertile enough to create worst types of insurgency in the future as the prophesy for the nation’s disintegration still hangs if the regionalization of BH into Chad, Niger and Cameroun is anything to go buy and massive presence of international military Armada in the sub region, especially, Niamey and Bamako. More reason why the Government has a duty to ensure is not seen as complacent in not only occupying the sub region but upholding the territorial integrity of its immediate neighbourhoods and Africa as a whole. The greatest challenge today to the country’s foreign and Defense policy.
For the first time Nigerian military was been ridiculed to near zero as mutiny, run away soldiers become major characteristics of their fight against BH perhaps till now. How Nigerian weapons were allowed to fall into the hands of BH in the most dramatic display calls for an urgent national restructuring of the entire security system It is here we further underscores the significance of futurism as a course of action all stakeholders in the survival and prosperity of Nigeria must be seen fully committed to reverse all the forces of misdeeds that work destructively on it. The survival of Nigeria is the survival of over 200 million Nigerians, as is the survival of over 1 billion Africans as well as the cohesion and stability of the International dynamics. Hence the inevitability of holding the elections as planned, a sop to BH and change in manners and styles of managing public treasuries, discharge of public responsibilities and the imperatives to uphold rule of law. These are the guarantors for Nigeria beyond 2015.
The strategic value of Nigeria has placed the prosperity and overall survival of many countries in Africa, west Africa in particular on the survival of Nigeria. It must not allow these countries to look down on it simply because some clique are using its military and resources for enrichment and self aggrandizement. This explains the poor performance of the military to contain BH that Niger Republic is already spitting on Nigeria. Corruption that is let loose is another factor that is grossly making Nigerians the world over dejected ,distrusted species. All these necessitated the search, the commitment and the imperative to redesign the direction of this huge giant that is rotting.There are everthing to make this country great and for to all. Lets do that. This is the obligation we owe our posterity.
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1Elharun is a founding Director, Institute for Policy, Development & Innovative Studies. Kaduna. Email : elharun@gmail.com
[i] Elharun is a founding Director, Institute for Policy, Development & Innovative Studies. Kaduna. Email : elharun@gmail.com
