ABUJA — A deep dive into Nigeria’s energy sector financials has exposed a staggering pattern of “press release recycling” by the Tinubu administration, revealing that the ₦3.3 trillion power debt settlement announced this week is an exact replica of a failed promise made nearly two years ago.
On April 6, 2026, the Presidency touted a ₦3.3 trillion approval as the “full and final settlement” to rescue the national grid. However, archival records and industry receipts confirm that Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, made an identical announcement on May 17, 2024, at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace in Abuja. Despite the “approval” in 2024, the sector has since plummeted into deeper insolvency, with the national debt nearly doubling while the government continues to re-announce the same figures.
The Paper Trail of Failure
Financial analysts and industry observers, including prominent journalist Rufai Oseni, have pointed to a “damning” timeline of approvals that have failed to translate into actual electricity:
- May 2024: ₦3.3 trillion “part-payment” approved by President Tinubu.
- May 2025: A massive $122 billion policy framework approved.
- July 2025: A ₦4 trillion debt-clearing bond approved.
- January 2026: A fresh ₦501 billion bond issued to stabilize the market.
- April 2026: The original ₦3.3 trillion figure is announced again as a “new” solution.
The numbers suggest a catastrophic collapse in fiscal management. Between 2015 and December 2024, the power sector debt sat at ₦4 trillion. By March 2026, that debt had ballooned to ₦6.8 trillion, growing at an unsustainable rate of ₦200 billion every single month. Critics argue that announcing a ₦3.3 trillion fix today is like trying to put out a forest fire with a cup of water that was already promised two years ago.
GenCos Reject “Settlement” Traps
The Association of Power Generation Companies (GenCos) has further pulled the rug out from under the government’s narrative. Reports indicate that the majority of private GenCos have flatly refused to sign the latest settlement agreements.
Insiders reveal that the terms of the 2026 “final settlement” conflict sharply with existing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Only five generating companies—largely those with government affiliations—have signed on. The private sector remains wary, viewing the ₦3.3 trillion offer not as a rescue, but as a coercive attempt to force them to accept pennies on the dollar for energy already supplied to a failing grid.
The “10-Minute” President
The disconnect between these multi-trillion naira announcements and the reality on the ground reached a boiling point during President Tinubu’s recent visit to Jos to condole with massacre victims. Despite the billions allegedly flowing into the sector, the President reportedly told his audience he was leaving in just 10 minutes because the airport had no electricity.
“The irony is staggering,” one analyst noted. “A President who approves billions to fix electricity cannot spend 10 minutes at a Nigerian airport because there is no light. It proves this is not governance; it is a press release recycling programme.”
Public Disillusionment
As the 2027 election cycle approaches, the Nigerian public is increasingly viewing these repeat announcements as a “white elephant” strategy designed to siphoning funds for political use. With the national grid collapsing twice in the first quarter of 2026 alone, the government’s reliance on “same figure, different date” tactics has left the “Renewed Hope” agenda in total darkness.
