ABUJA — The explosive “civil war” currently tearing through Nigeria’s political elite has a much longer and darker history than many realize. According to Akin Osuntokun, former Director-General of the Labour Party Presidential Campaign Council, the bitter rivalry between former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai and National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu was actually ignited by a secret public opinion survey conducted by President Bola Tinubu nearly 19 years ago.
Speaking on Arise Television’s “Prime Time” on Tuesday evening, February 17, 2026, Osuntokun revealed that the seeds of “bad blood” were sown in 2007 when Tinubu, then the outgoing Governor of Lagos State and a rising kingmaker, began searching for a younger Northern star to sponsor for the presidency.
The Survey That Changed Everything
Osuntokun, who served as a political adviser during the Obasanjo era, provided a rare glimpse into the backroom dealings of that period. He explained that Tinubu commissioned a private survey to test the popularity of several Northern “technocrats” among the Nigerian public.
The results, according to Osuntokun, were a devastating blow to El-Rufai’s ego:
- The Findings: The survey reportedly showed Nuhu Ribadu commanding a high approval rating of between 45% and 57%, while El-Rufai trailed significantly behind.
- The Adoption:Â Based on these numbers, Tinubu “adopted” Ribadu as his preferred candidate, a move that Osuntokun claims El-Rufai has never truly forgiven.
- “Transferred Aggression”:Â “El-Rufai never really got over being rated lower than Ribadu,” Osuntokun stated. “What we are seeing today is a ‘devious transferred aggression.’ He is obsessed with bringing Ribadu down because of a rivalry that started two decades ago.”
“A Game of Thrones for Thieves”—Nigerians Blast the Elite
While Osuntokun’s “history lesson” has provided context for the current wiretapping and poison allegations, the reaction from the Nigerian public has been one of weary disgust. For many citizens, the revelation that a 19-year-old survey is fueling today’s national security crisis is the height of political immaturity.
- “Fighting Over Old Wounds”: “Nigerians are struggling to buy a bag of rice for N100,000, and our leaders are still fighting over who was more popular in 2007,” remarked an Abuja-based analyst. “It shows that these people are not interested in governance; they are only interested in their personal ‘rank’ and ego.”
- “The Puppet Master Theory”: Critics on social media have blasted both Ribadu and El-Rufai, arguing that they have turned the nation’s security agencies into a “personal battlefield.” “One is using the DSS to file cybercrime charges, the other is making poison allegations. This isn’t national security; it’s a high-school drama with guns,” one viral post on X (formerly Twitter) read.
- “Aso Rock’s Long Memory”:Â Others expressed skepticism about Tinubu’s role. “The President is the ultimate chess player. He knew this rivalry existed and he is using it to keep both men busy while he consolidates power for 2027,” noted a resident in Port Harcourt.
The Legal Net Tightens
The “Bestie era” of the early 2000s, when Ribadu and El-Rufai were the “shining stars” of the Obasanjo administration, is now officially dead.
- Wednesday Interrogation: As of this morning, Wednesday, February 18, 2026, El-Rufai is expected to appear before the ICPC for questioning, fresh off his 30-hour interrogation at the EFCC regarding an alleged N423 billion misappropriation in Kaduna.
- The Court Case: He also faces a three-count criminal charge for allegedly bugging the NSA’s phone—a charge his lawyers describe as “political theater.”
As Osuntokun concluded, the “roforofo fight” (dirty fight) between the two former friends has become a dangerous distraction for a country facing a major economic and security crisis.
