PORT HARCOURT — A series of high-stakes political developments in Rivers State has sparked intense debate over the future of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, as his predecessor and estranged godfather, Nyesom Wike, appears to consolidate control over the state’s political machinery.
In what many observers describe as a “strategic boxing-in,” recent decisions from the All Progressives Congress (APC) National Working Committee and the Presidency suggest that despite holding the office of Governor, Fubara is increasingly being pushed to the periphery.
Wike Reclaims the Steering Wheel
The balance of power shifted visibly this week when Wike, the current FCT Minister, was reportedly given the authority to nominate candidates for the upcoming bye-elections in Ahoada and Khana State Constituencies. This move signals that, despite no longer being in the Government House, Wike remains the primary arbiter of candidate selection in the state.
Compounding this, the APC officially positioned Wike to lead President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign in Rivers State. For a sitting governor, being bypassed for campaign leadership is viewed by analysts as both a personal embarrassment and a significant political threat.
The “Strategic Leash”
The final blow to Fubara’s influence came with the APC’s announcement that there would be no ward, local government, or state congresses in Rivers State. This decision effectively freezes the existing party structure, which remains firmly populated by Wike’s loyalists.
“Fubara is currently politically handicapped,” noted political commentator Bethel Agbara. “Without control over the party structure or candidate selection, his path to a second-term ticket is fraught with danger.”
Agbara further argued that the persistent threat of impeachment serves as a “strategic leash,” preventing the Governor from defecting to another platform, such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC), where other opposition figures like Peter Obi have recently found refuge. Any attempt to exit the APC could trigger a well-orchestrated removal process by a legislature still largely loyal to the FCT Minister.
A Case Study in Godfatherism
The ongoing crisis has evolved into a national case study on the limits of political rebellion. Critics question whether Fubara overestimated the protection his defection to the APC would provide or if he simply failed to secure the necessary institutional leverage during negotiations.
As the 2027 elections approach, the Governor faces an uphill battle to mobilize a base while the state’s political machinery answers to his rival. Whether Fubara has a hidden “ace” to play or has been completely outmanoeuvred at every turn remains the most pressing question in Rivers politics.
