Analysis of the crisis suggests that the impeachment notice served on January 8, 2026, was less about the alleged lack of a formal budget and more about the Governor’s strategic refusal to allow external forces to dictate the composition of his cabinet and the management of state resources.
While Fubara initially adopted a “stoop to conquer” strategy—even distancing himself from his primary support base, the “Simplified Movement”—he ultimately reneged on the agreement to drop his trusted aides, leading to an immediate breakdown in relations with the Wike-aligned Assembly.
Governor Fubara resisted this, insisting instead on the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill. This fiscal defiance led the Assembly to abruptly end their recess early and issue a televised impeachment notice, bypassing formal notification protocols.
Feedback from the Presidency reportedly indicated that President Tinubu was “displeased” with the impeachment move, characterizing it as a distraction from regional stability. This federal disapproval left the Assembly members in a precarious position, caught between their loyalty to the FCT Minister and the directives of the President.
Following the President’s intervention, the Assembly’s aggressive posture shifted toward a “face-saving” mission. In the last 48 hours, several lawmakers have appeared on national television seeking “peace” and “forgiveness” while simultaneously maintaining that the Governor violated the Constitution—a move analysts describe as a failed damage-control strategy.
Reports suggest the Assembly is currently seeking a way to formally withdraw the impeachment notice without losing political face. The Governor, maintaining what supporters call “strategic silence,” has reportedly signaled that he will only present the 2026 Appropriation Bill once a formal, sincere invitation is extended by the House.
As the political dust settles, the failed plot underscores a significant shift in the Rivers power dynamic: Governor Fubara has successfully utilized his new alignment with the Presidency to neutralize local legislative threats, leaving the pro-Wike Assembly with few options but to seek a reconciliation they once vowed to avoid.
