By Michael Egbebike, PhD
Nigeria’s political landscape took a decisive turn this July with the formal unveiling of a broad-based opposition coalition under the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). In a surprising move that brought together former vice president Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party leader Peter Obi, former governors Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi, and several other political heavyweights, the ADC was declared the adopted platform for a united opposition effort to challenge the APC in the 2027 general elections.
Loading ...To seasoned political watchers, this bears an uncanny resemblance to the 2013 realignment that led to the fall of the then ruling PDP in 2015 and ushered in the APC. The question on many minds, however, is whether history will repeat itself—or whether it will collapse under the weight of personal ambition, lack of grassroots structures, and ideological ambiguity.
At the heart of this alliance lies the political trajectory of Peter Obi, a man whose name has become synonymous with clean governance, fiscal discipline, and a new wave of youth engagement. For many, including myself, Obi represents not just a candidate but a moral compass in an era of transactional politics. His association with this new coalition therefore holds promise-but also risk.
The Promise of Coalition Politics
The strategic logic of the coalition is difficult to fault. No single opposition party, standing alone, can realistically match the APC’s entrenched hold on national structures, finance, and state resources. The Labour Party, for all its energy and moral high ground, lacks the deep-rooted political machinery required to win in the rural vote belts. The PDP, though historically expansive, is burdened by internal divisions and voter fatigue. Together, however-anchored on a credible platform like the ADC and guided by a shared objective-they may just have a chance.
Peter Obi’s remarks at the unveiling were telling: “No one group can change Nigeria alone. It requires the coming together of like minds, patriots, and visionaries from across the country.” This is not merely rhetoric. It is a call to transcend ethnic, regional, and partisan divides-a rare sentiment in our politics.
The decision to restructure the ADC leadership, installing respected elder statesmen like David Mark as interim chair, also signals a seriousness that extends beyond electoral showmanship. If properly harnessed, the coalition could form the nucleus of a formidable political realignment—one that offers Nigeria an alternative vision to the APC’s governance.
The Dangers of a Fractured Unity
Yet coalitions, by their very nature, are precarious. Beneath the handshake and photo ops lies a delicate balancing act of egos and ambitions. Who leads the presidential ticket? Atiku Abubakar has run five times; Peter Obi commands massive youth support and is widely seen as the face of hope; El-Rufai is both strategic and controversial; Amaechi has his own power base.
Without a clear framework for decision-making, the coalition could implode before it begins. The failed merger talks between LP and PDP in 2023 should serve as a sobering lesson. A power-sharing formula is not enough; the coalition must agree on principles, governance direction, and—most importantly—succession plans that transcend individual interest.
Equally important is the coalition’s relationship with the grassroots. High-level defections and elite endorsements don’t always translate to votes on election day. As Okey Ikechukwu aptly noted, the success of any political movement depends not just on who gathers in Abuja, but who mobilizes in Kano, Onitsha, Maiduguri, and Eket.
Peter Obi: The Wild Card and the Way Forward
Peter Obi remains the most intriguing figure in this new equation. His popularity among the youth, the middle class, and the diaspora is undeniable. His 2023 campaign, despite limited structure, shocked the establishment. Yet, his silence on whether he would run again—or cede ground for the sake of unity—raises critical questions.
Would Obi accept a vice-presidential slot again? Should he? Can his “Obidient” base be directed by coalition consensus, or will it fracture if he is sidelined?
One remarkable proposal Obi floated during the ADC unveiling was the idea of a single-term presidency, aimed at reducing the desperation for power and enforcing equitable rotation. While some see it as a selfless gesture, others worry it could be a strategic misstep, weakening his negotiating power within the coalition.
Still, the greatest danger is not Obi’s ambition, but the coalition’s potential to misuse his credibility. Festus Keyamo, an APC loyalist, recently argued that the ADC coalition is “after Peter Obi’s votes but will not give him the ticket.” This is not an idle fear. Many movements have started with popular faces only to end with compromises that betray their core supporters.
The Road to 2027: What Must Be Done
To build a durable coalition, three things must happen:
A Transparent Selection Process
The coalition must establish a merit-based and consensus-driven system for choosing its presidential flagbearer. This could be through structured primaries, internal polling, or a zonal rotation formula. Whatever the method, it must be fair, inclusive, and transparent.
Grassroots Mobilization, Not Just Big Names
The coalition must quickly move from strategy rooms to street corners. It must identify local champions in each state, fund voter education, and build an organic structure that reflects Nigeria’s complexity. It must particularly prioritize the North, which remains the electoral fulcrum.
Protect Peter Obi’s Integrity and Voice
Obi must not allow himself to be used as political capital without policy leadership. If he is not leading the ticket, his role must still be central and substantive-perhaps as chair of the coalition policy council, or a designated leader for public-sector reforms.
Conclusion: A Moment Pregnant with Possibility
Nigeria is once again at a crossroads. The rising cost of living, erosion of public trust, and deepening insecurity have made many citizens politically restless. The new ADC coalition may well be the vehicle for a democratic renewal. But it must avoid the mistakes of the past: putting ambition before purpose, and access before accountability.
Peter Obi remains a credible voice and potential leader in this transition. Whether as presidential candidate or coalition anchor, he must remain true to the ideals that brought him national prominence: integrity, service, and fiscal prudence. His supporters will not accept anything less.
The next few months will determine whether this coalition will rewrite Nigeria’s history-or repeat it.
About the Author:
Dr. Michael Okwudili Egbebike is a lawyer, environmental scientist, civil engineer, land surveyor and public affairs analyst, and advocate for good governance in Nigeria. He lectures pro-bono at the University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus and Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka
michael.egbebike@unn.edu.ng
mo.egbebike@unizik.edu.ng
