Due to the occurrence in the state after the eventful chaos from the political space to the communal clashes, the political panorama in Osun has been discernible with tensions between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to take over local government secretariats. It started with a court ruling debacle, with different quarters dishing out their perceived judgement on the LG elections held under Oyetola and Adeleke’s administrations, both parties asserting superiority over the other.
For the past two months, local government secretariats in Osun state have been closed for local governance activities, which should be a state of distress to all Nigerians because the grassroots citizens are deprived of representation at their locality levels. It is a disturbing moment for the people of the state after enduring the bloody fight which claimed lives from both parties trying to hijack the system. The governor must address the LG crisis to enhance his administration’s reputation for good governance. Meanwhile, the APC should also focus on promoting their policies and track records to connect with voters in the upcoming election. However, their management of LGs during Oyetola’s tenure may attract scrutiny if perceived as inconsistent with their current stance.
Osun State had been experiencing tremendous infrastructural and economic changes aimed at attracting investors into the state; this had been a routine from Adeleke’s predecessors, from the Oyetola to the Aregbesola administrations. But with the disarray uprooting the state of living spring, it is no more a matter of a shaggy-dog story with stakeholders making peace talks from the partisan to non-partisan actors with varieties of law interpretation to suit their paid masters. The higher courts or additional legal proceedings must be obeyed by all and sundry of the land. The 2026 Osun gubernatorial election electrified the issue more, with the Oyetola and Basiru-led APC executives issuing orders from Abuja to their ousted chairmen of the local government in Osun State, even employing all instruments of government tactics (emergency order) to win the battle lost at the court of law. Osun State narrowly avoided the APC’s alleged plan to impose an emergency order, which later affected Rivers State through a similar directive from the presidency.
The political environment in Osun APC has been facing substantial internal tensions, leading to the expulsion and suspension of numerous members due to alleged anti-party activities consisting of 84 APC members which was countered with allegations of ostracization and unfair treatment of their group leaders including the former minister of interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola; ex-SSG to the Osun state government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti and others who formed the Omoluabi Progressives in order to push their narrative in shaping the roadmap towards 2026 election because it was one of the course that led to emergence of the current Governor Ademola Adeleke on the platform of the PDP. Aregbesola and progressive groups are aiming at playing a pivotal role to offer alternative leadership and reclaim governance in the state.
Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola, Dr Ajibola Basiru, Engr. Lekan Badmus, and Dr Biodun Oyebamiji are actively competing to become the APC gubernatorial flag bearer. It has been the bite of the wind on the cheeks of their supporters who do not know where to hold their grasps. On the principles and stand of the party, they should converge to correct and find solutions to all forms of abnormalities, unequal representation, indiscipline among the party members across the board, superiority, and the I-must-become syndrome. For APC to front a robust challenge, the party must resolve internal rifts and present a united façade. A fresh face like Ajibola Basiru or Biodun Oyebamiji could allure to voters seeking change, but Oyetola’s conventional base may still command loyalty if the party rallies behind him. Ultimately, the election outcome will hinge on campaign strategies, alliances, and the ability of candidates to inspire voter turnout.
During the 2022 Osun election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, at the palace of the Ataoja of Osogbo, controversially stated that his wealth surpassed Osun State’s allocation and confidently predicted Gboyega Oyetola’s re-election, which led Ademola Adeleke into power. In that order, the president might want to redeem his image with federal influence by doubling down on efforts to secure victory for the APC and also paying back for their statesmanship, especially for Bisi Akande, Iyiola Omisore, Ajibola Basiru and a host of others in the heated APC 2024 presidential primary election. Miscalculated moves by the APC could lead to an unconsolidated candidacy, further alienating factions within the party and deepening existing divisions. Osun voters may support the APC if Tinubu delivers tangible benefits to the state through federal projects and appointments, which could improve public perception and boost the party’s prospects. As it is, if the voters perceive Tinubu’s renewed efforts as federal overreach or excessive imposition, it could alienate them further in the re-election.
The PDP will likely back Ademola Adeleke for re-election, with potential contenders if leadership challenges or shifts arise within the party. However, such challenges are expected to be minimal, as Governor Adeleke is poised to leverage his incumbency, grassroots appeal, and perceived accessibility to solidify his position as the frontrunner. If he maintains political stability and governance successes, he is likely to retain significant support from the 403,371 votes in the last election because he has a substantial political presence and strong backing in the PDP. As the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is emerging as a potential “Third Force” in Nigeria’s political landscape, which has been traditionally dominated by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the past election, which was reawakened by the 2018 gubernatorial flag bearer, Sen. Iyiola Omisore. Both APC and PDP will either benefit or condense their votes with the development that could actively influence the dynamics of the 2026 gubernatorial election and in the recent political realignments that have positioned the SDP as a viable alternative to the established parties.
Osun PDP and APC face challenges that could affect their success in the 2026 gubernatorial election, including internal party crises, factionalism, and disagreements over candidate selection, which may harm party unity and weaken their chances in the race. Additionally, voter dissatisfaction with governance and increased competition from both parties at the local and federal levels pose further obstacles. For any of the parties to succeed in 2026, it will need to address these internal challenges, ensure leadership cohesion, and demonstrate significant progress in governance to retain public confidence. And also, if the parties can manage these obstacles effectively, there will be a formidable force in Osun politics.
Before the clamour for the Osogbo factor to be utilised, I think we should justify the power rotation in the state first, since the creation of the state, the Osun West had produced the governor twice, namely Sen. Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke and the incumbent governor, Sen. Ademola Adeleke, while the Osun Central had produced three governors, namely Chief Bisi Akande, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola, and Osun East only has a governor in the district, which is Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola. In real terms, it has been a ratio of 2:3:1, which is not evenly represented. Political parties should allow others to put their candidates forward to promote unity and electoral balance.
The Osogbo factor is the political crescendos tied to Osogbo, the capital city of Osun State, and it can also appreciably affect the outcome of the 2026 gubernatorial election. Osogbo maintains strategic importance due to its political, economic, and cultural influence in the state. Stakeholders should bring the Osogbo factor to the board to ensure even and equal representation in the state. Candidates who effectively address the city’s needs, engage with its youth population, and respect its cultural significance will have a strong chance of securing votes.
The voting strength of Osogbo is significant and should not be overlooked, as doing so could have serious consequences. The idea of an Osogbo indigene becoming the governor of Osun State has been a longstanding political and cultural discussion, shaped by various historical factors. An Osogbo indigene becoming governor of Osun State is possible but requires deliberate political strategy, statewide coalition-building, and strong grassroots support. If Osogbo leaders and communities can unite around a competent candidate with a clear vision for the entire state, they might break this historical barrier in the near future. An Osogbo candidate with strong political and demographic support could emerge as a contender. Ajibola Bashiru, Taslim Igbalaye, Kunle Adegoke, Munir Raji, Yemi Oladimeji, Adewale Morufu and others from Osogbo could emerge as strong contenders; they will face significant challenges in breaking the tradition of power rotation in Osun politics. If it is not possible in the 2026 gubernatorial election, it should be reflected upon in the subsequent elections to redeem the image of the parties to Osogbo indigenes.
In predicting whoever might emerge victorious in the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial election, it starts from the primary election where candidates and party stakeholders pick the candidate depending on several factors, including party unity, candidates’ popularity, governance track records, and their ability to connect with the electorate. These declarations and endorsements are preliminary, and party stakeholders will finalise the official candidate lists closer to the election date.
