By Jaja Lopez
Delta state is complex in all ramifications. It has produced leaders and intellectuals in all spheres of human endeavours. In Nigeria, Delta indigenes have distinguished themselves in leadership, entrepreneurship, academia and public service. Perhaps, this accounts why the state is called the Big heart. The complexity of the state is most evident in the political arena, where its composite ethnic groupings struggle to manoeuvre one another, for political dominance. Politics in Delta state is as intriguing as the game of chess. It is always a game of horse-trading, where the knight is always lurking in the corner waiting for the last minute to strike. In 2007, when Governor James Ibori held sway, the preferred candidate of the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), the dominant political party in Delta state, was kept away from the public glare. While the likes of Godwill Obielum, Ifeanyi Okowa and Cairo Ojuogboh dominated the governorship discourse, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan who later emerged was lurking in the shadows; only to emerge at the 11th hour. The same trend is bound to recur in the 2015 contest. Many of those who have been in the frontlines, enjoying media blitz and attention are forerunners while some others are mere pretenders; only a few are the major contenders.
However, one ingredient that is critical to the emergence of the PDP candidate is the support of Governor Uduaghan and horse-trading with other ethnic groupings in the state. For a candidate of Anioma extraction to emerge, the support of Urhobos, one of dominant ethnic grouping in the state is requisite.
Delta North
Since the creation of Delta state in 1999, it has been ruled by people from Delta central and Delta south. Delta south has produced Olorugun Felix Ibru and Chief James Ibori while Delta south produced Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan. Only Delta north is left to govern the state. Hence, in the quest for equitable participation in the political governance of Delta State, the people of Anioma have been agitating for a go at the seat of political power; to govern Delta state. While there might not be an official position on zoning, there is a tacit agreement by political actors in the state to zone the ticket for 2015 Governorship to Delta north, especially within the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party(PDP). The essence of the political arrangement is to cater to perceived injustice meted to the Anioma people since the enthronement of democracy in 1999.
While there are a few candidates from Delta central and south, who have collected nomination forms for the Guber contest in the PDP, the race is dominated by aspirants from Delta north, a suggestion that the ticket may have been tacitly ceded to Delta north.
Political permutation Favours Ndokwa
Delta north comprises three sub-ethnic groupings: Aniocha-Oshimili; Ika and Ndokwa. Among the three sub-ethic units that comprise Delta North, Ndokwa is the most alienated from political patronage since 1999. In the present political-patronage structure, the Ika axis has Senator Ifeanyi Okowa (representing Delta north in the Senate); Godwin Emefiele (Central Bank of Nigeria Governor): Dr. Cairo Ojugboh (National Vice Chairman of PDP in the south-south). Earlier, Ika has produced two speakers of the state house of assembly in the persons of Martins Okonta and Sam Obi, who later served as governor of the state in an interregnum. The Ika also boast a former secretary to state government in the person of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, now a Senator.
For the Aniocha-Oshimili, it has dominated most federal appointments since 1999. It has produced Chief Philip Asiodu (Chief Economic Adviser to the President), Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; Dr.Chris Agbobu (former minister); Professor Joy Ogwu (former Minister and permanent representative to the United Nations); Professor Sylvester Monye (Special Adviser to the President on Project Monitoring and Evaluation); Dr. Nwanze Okidegbe (Chief Economic Adviser to the President). The Aniocha-Oshimili has also enjoyed political patronage at the state level: Sir Benjamin Elue (deputy governor for eight years); Victor Ochei (Speaker) and Peter Onwusanya (Speaker of the state house of assembly).
The Ndokwa axis has not been as lucky as other sub-ethnic units; it has only enjoyed meagre political patronage. Senator Patrick Osakwe represented Delta north for 12 years in the Upper legislative chamber (the Senate); Olisa Imegu (speaker of the state house of assembly, whose tenure was truncated midway) and Beatrice Omeni, who also had a short-lived stint as secretary to state government. Consequently, it would amount to stating the most obvious that the Ndokwa has been relegated in the political schema of Delta State .There is also the unannounced sentiment that it would amount to injustice for persons from Aniocha-Oshimili to govern Delta state while the state capital is in Asaba. While many insist that a candidate of Aniocha-Oshimili is can emerge governor of the state, they agree that it would be most viable in future.
On the other hand, Urhobos and Isokos, by marriage and geographical proximity have proclivity for the Ndokwa and therefore, comfortable with ceding political power to the Ndokwa. The Ndokwa is considered a resource-partner to the revenue base of Delta state, a factor which the Urhobo, Isoko and Ijaw have punted as a requisite characteristic for the heritage of Delta state. Ndokwa accounts for a chunk of oil and Gas production in the country and this is counted as privilege to the Delta heritage, of being the resource-base of Nigeria. In essence, the Urhobos are willing only to concede power to a person from an area boasting resource(s) extraction as a compensation for their contribution to the revenue –base of the state. Therefore, ceding the governorship to the Ndokwa is only an attempt at addressing this perceived injustice before it snowballs into an avenue for agitation. Hence, in the estimation of political actors from Delta south and Delta central, a candidate of Ndokwa extraction would emerge a compromise candidate in the quest for power shift to Delta North.
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The Frontrunners
Why Charles Emetulu is the Candidate to beat
Charles Emetulu, until recently Commissioner for Power and Energy in Delta state is from Abbi, in Ndokwa West local government area of Delta state. By this geography, he is of Ndokwa extraction in Delta north. Abbi is bordered to the south by Owheologbo in Isoko North (Delta south) and Orogun in Ughelli north (Delta central), underscoring his affinity to the Urhobos and Isokos. Emetulu is also married to an Urhobo; a factor that privileges access to the Urhobo support.
Beside these factors, Emetulu is the only member of Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan-led state executive council that is contesting in 2015 to govern Delta state and in the spirit of continuity will be the most viable candidate to carry on with Uduaghan’s Delta Beyond Oil Project. Emetulu also comes with no baggage; a factor that distinguishes him from all other contenders to the Governorship of Delta state.
Conversely, Emetulu’s comportment and refinement count for his candidacy. His humility is infectious and his persona engaging. To many of those who have encountered the man, they often applaud his humility and ability to listen to people, irrespective of social status, religion and ethnicity.
On assumption as Delta state Commissioner for Power and Energy, Emetulu has left no one in doubt that he understands the essence of governance, with the massive deployment of rural electrification projects across the length and breadth of the state. But Emetulu is not one to brag about his credential or capacity; only those who have encountered him can attest. He is often quoted as saying that governance is about the people; that he is in the contest to better the lot of the people.
Emetulu, an educationist and media practitioner is not a greenhorn in politics. He had served as first member, Delta State Post Primary Education Board; Special Assistant to the Special Project Director , Ogbe-Ijoh market and Udu Harbour market projects and Political aid to the Hon. Commissioner for Commerce And Industry in Delta State from 2003 – 2005.
Tony Obuh
Obuh, a retired permanent secretary has been on massive media blitz for the governorship of Delta state. For many, he is the anointed candidate of governor Uduaghan but to those with insider’s knowledge of the workings of Delta state politics, Obuh may be akin to John the Baptist. One of many factors that count against Obuh is that he has been a civil servant all his life and many political actors in the state think that he will rock the boat if given the PDP ticket.
Professor Sylvester Monye
Monye is considered an Abuja politician, whose political pivot is hinged on his closeness to the Presidency. Whether the Presidency will stick out its neck for Monye against Uduaghan’s preferred candidate remains to be seen.
Godwill Obielum
Obielum lost his opportunity to govern Delta state in 2007. When Obielum emerged on the Delta political scene in 2007, it was like a blitzkrieg. As of the time, it was speculated that Obielum’s slate for elective positions in the entire Delta north was adopted by the national leadership of the PDP. If Obielum could not get it in 2007 when his chances were brighter, it remains to be seen how he will get it in 2015.
Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa
Okowa is a grassroots politician, who has occupied every position there is in political leadership at the state level: councilor, local government chairman, commissioner and Senator. However, Okowa’s ambition to govern Delta state has a downward side to it: he has been trailed by the allegation that he sold out his candidacy for Governor Uduaghan to emerge at the 2007 PDP Guber primaries in Ogwashi-Uku. While this allegation lacks authenticity, his enemies have given it prominence within political circles in Delta north.
Ndudu Elumelu
Honourable Ndudi Elumelu has been in the House of Reps for two terms and can be said to have represented his people well. The controversy that dogged Elumelu over the rural electrification project is yet to abate. Though, the Elumelu brand is powerful, it may not be enough for Ndudi’s Guber ambition.
Senator Emmanuel Aguariavwodo
The former NDDC boss and latest Senator from Delta state is also in the contest. Though, there are speculations he is propped up by the Presidency, he may not be the Governor’s preferred candidate. Another factor that may work against his candidacy is that he is an Urhobo from Delta central. The agitation by the Anioma to govern Delta state in 2015 cannot be wished away if PDP intends on retaining Delta state.
Kenneth Gbagi
Former Minister of state for education and business man is also in the contest. He is also an Urhobo, which means he is contesting against the agitation for a Delta Governor of Anioma extraction. Though, he possesses the financial war chest to prosecute his Guber ambition, whether he has the requisite political support to achieve it remains debatable.
Forerunners
Victor Ochei
Honourable Victor Ochei was former speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, who resigned in March when it became evident that he was going to be impeached by his colleagues in the House. Though, Ochei is still in the race, whether he can muster through to emerge the candidate of the ruling party is debatable considering that he might not enjoy the support of Governor Uduaghan.
Ngozi Olejeme
If there is one candidate who has enjoined media blitz, it is Olejeme. At the outset, Olejeme loomed large over the Delta Guber contest but all that is waning. While Olejeme cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, whether Delta state is ready for a woman-governor is another thing.
Obarisi Ovie-Omoagege
Omo agege can be best considered among the pretenders to Delta Guber contest. In 2011, Omoagege pulled a stunt that enthralled many Deltans but he soon gave himself away when it became obvious that he was fronting for governor Uduaghan. He was later compensated with the position of Secretary to state government.
David Edevbie
Edevbie is a fine gentleman, who is reputed to have managed the finances of the state under former Govenror James Ibori. While his capacity is not in doubt, he is being haunted by the ghost of Ibori’s administration. On the other hand, he is an Urhobo, who is not favoured by the unfolding political permutation in Delta state. Jaja Lopez, a journalist and a Media Scholar writes from Abuja
