The war against insurgency in Nigeria has sadly been reduced to Jonathan’s war. Those who could command public opinion to weigh in against the spread of the Boko Haram sect and terrorism in northern Nigeria have ostensibly kept mute or talking in a manner deriding President Goodluck Jonathan and his Government; some are even out-rightly making encouraging remarks to create inertia of social forces that have continued to reinforce the insurgency in the parts of the country. This explains the growing lack of synergy amongst the political class in the fight against insurgency in Nigeria. Rather than pull together to defeat insurgency in the land, some sections are directly and indirectly promoting it for political gains.
Many political actors in the current dispensation come across as mere cartoon characters. They live under the illusion that once President Jonathan is forced out, Boko Haram insurgents would leave the Sambisa Forest and climb down from the Adamawa Mountains and embrace peace and reintegrate into the society, like the Niger Delta militants. While this assumption remains to be seen and most unlikely, it is safer to treat Boko Haram as a terrorist organization that it is, and not as political wing of some power mongers.
Insurgencies all over the world follow a pattern that can no longer be subjected to normal logic. The psychology of terrorism is clear: those who go through its tutelage and brainwashing, are radicalized to give up normal life and form a subculture, which can no longer mesh with the main stream it left. This basic truth vitiates the thinking of those who believe the coming to power of somebody other than President Jonathan (perhaps a Muslim Northerner) would stop insurgency. This is an empty dream if the antisocial and anarchistic nature of terrorism is fully considered.
Also, from the deep divisions in the fighting ranks of the Nigerian military, it does appear these selfish Politicians have reached out to their contacts in the military and convinced many of them not to fight and to sabotage the operations of the Nigerian military. This has led to too many desertions and cowardly actions, which have paved the way for the Boko Haram to make frightful progress to the point of establishing caliphates here and there. The sect just renamed Gwoza in Borno State, which it captured in July to Darul Hikma or “House of Wisdom”. Mubi is now Nadinatul Islam, which means the City of Islam and peace. One wonders what is wise or peaceful about their violent takeover of Gwoza and Mubi or the sorrow, tears and blood they have left in their trails all over northern Nigeria.
One question is pertinent here: is President Jonathan the problem as some opposition politicians want the world to believe? Let us recall that Boko Haram was incubated by some of these Politicians long before President Jonathan came to power at the center. What triggered the current escalation of the terrorist conflict – the extrajudicial killing of M. Yusuf, its leader – also happened long before Jonathan.
What this points out is that Boko Haram was not precipitated by the Jonathan Presidency. This does not however mean that he should allow it to fester, and he hasn’t. The presidential will to combat Boko Haram insurgencies and defeat it is evidently there also; the military is being equipped and reinforced in manpower and otherwise, to adequately rise to the occasion. If the Nigerian military, once reputed as one of the greatest in Africa, has fallen short of expectations in this all-important fight, it is not because President Jonathan has denied them any vital political will or cover.
The reason the fight against insurgency in Nigeria is witnessing all manner of surprises and reversals is the said sabotage, which may have been inspired by politicians who want the insurgency to persist as a proof that Jonathan is incapable of managing the affairs of Nigeria and by those who promised to make Nigeria ungovernable for reasons we all know. Such actors have made quite some impression on the international community, where vested interests may be denying the President the assistance he naturally deserves to pull the country out of the dilemma.
Curiously, the US of all nations are officially not selling arms to Nigeria and the US Nigerian Ambassador gave the reason to be that Nigeria’s military has an awful record of human rights abuses. This has forced Nigeria to purchase arms even from black market out of frustration and desperation. More curious is America’s insistence on dialogue with Boko Haram, a brutal sect it has officially criminalized and designated a terrorist organization, even after that country, as a matter of policy, has refused to negotiate with Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations.
Those who are orchestrating insurgency in Nigeria therefore do not understand some of the violent dynamics of terrorism, which does not reverse once on course. Fact is: no matter who is in power in Nigeria, even if it is the head of Islam in the country, Sultan of Sokoto himself, insurgency cannot die away. It may even get worse. The reason is also simple: even though Boko Haram claims to be Islamic, it does not share the same ideology with the main stream Islam and unless the Muslim in power kowtows to their warped ideology, he will receive the same treatment as a Christian President Jonathan.
Boko Haram, officially called Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad (People Committed to the Prophet’s Teachings for Propagation and Jihad) is a Sunni Islamic fundamentalism laced in what they call Wahhabi and Salafi jihadism. It was founded since 2002 and became increasingly militant and defiant since the death of its first leader, Mohammed Yusuf. It is deadly and implacable.
The solution does not lie in asking President Jonathan to resign. If President Jonathan resigns today, the 1999 Constitution (as emended) stipulates that Vice President takes over and that is Namadi Sambo, the same man these campaigners such as Nasiru El Rufa recently told Nigerians has no control over anybody in Kaduna State, let alone the north.
Boko Haram is simply an insurrectionary and social anarchism rooted in an Islamic ideology gone awry. Most religions do have them, the difference being only in their goals and mode of operation. Reverend Jean Jones of Guyana Tragedy, the Church of Ten Commandments in Uganda, Reverend King of Nigeria, to mention a few, all led many to their early graves and yet claimed to be practicing Christianity and have done so in history and contemporary times.
No serious country plays politics with National Security. In matters of security, politics takes a backseat. This explains why a Democrat’s President Barack Obama had to appoint an erstwhile top Republican Senator, Chuck Hegel, as the US Secretary of Defence. National Security is so all-encompassing and at the heart of the nation and her survival. And unless the nation survives, there will be neither politics nor politicians and this is point lost on the Nigerian politicians. Some of them do not care if the country collapses as long as they have access to power, not minding ruling a section of the country than allow President Jonathan to have peace..
Those who ride the tiger have always ended in its belly and so may be the fate of those who are courting Boko Haram for political gain.
There is nothing a President should do in such war that President Jonathan has not done. What is lacking is synergy and the lack of it is made so by those who are now screaming that President Jonathan should resign for not standing up to Boko Haram. Unless the same people are saying the insurgents are their dogs and can call them back when they become President since they let them out in the first place. Even if that is the case, apart from being treason, mad dogs can no longer hear the calls of their masters. Mad dogs cannot be treated; they are destroyed the world over and so shall be Boko Haram.
• Law Mefor, Forensic Psychologist and Journalist, is National Coordinator, Transform Nigeria Movement (TNM), Abuja; +234-803-787-2893; e-mail: lawmefor@gmail.com
