Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) — President Barackย Obama has a five- point lead in Ohio while Republican challenger Mittย Romney has all but erased earlier deficits in Florida and Virginia,ย according to a poll of likely voters in three swing statesย released today.
The narrowing of the race in competitive states mirrors aย national trend in which several recent polls show the race tied or one candidateย ahead by a single percentage point.
A CBS Times/Newย York Times/Quinnipiacย University survey gave Obama a 50 percent to 45 percent edge in Ohio, aย state without which a Republican has never won the White House. Obama has led byย six to 10 points in earlier CBS/Times/Quinnipiac polls.
In Florida, Obama had a one-point advantage, 48 percent to 47ย percent, after leading by nine points a month earlier. His 49 percent to 47ย percent edge in Virginia is less than half of the five-point spread found in aย poll earlier this month.
โAfter being subjected to what seems like a zillion dollarsโ worth of television ads and personal attention from the two candidatesย reminiscent of a high-school crush, the key swing states of Florida and Virginiaย are too close to call with the election only days away,โ said Peterย A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiacย Polling Institute in Hamden, Connecticut.
The states are among the battlegrounds that politicalย observers of both parties say will decide which candidate winsย the presidency.
Favorable Opinion
Romneyโs surge in the polls tracks an increase in theย percentage of voters who have a favorable opinion of the former Massachusettsย governor. Heโs in positive territory for the first time in Florida, with 48ย percent viewing him favorably and 47 percent unfavorably. In Virginia, he has aย 49 percent favorable rating and a 46 percent unfavorable one, his biggestย positive spread to date. Only in Ohio does a plurality still view himย unfavorably, 48 percent, compared with 46 percent who viewย him favorably.
Majorities of voters in all three states view Obama favorably,ย 51 percent in Florida and 52 percent in Ohio and Virginia.
Voters in all three states cited the economy as the top issue.ย Romney had an edge over Obama on that issue in two of the states, 49 percent toย 47 percent in Florida and 50 percent to 46 percent in Virginia.
Auto Bailout
Obama held a 49 percent to 48 percent advantage on the economyย in Ohio, where one in eight jobs is connected to the auto industry. Obama backedย the use of government funds to rescue Generalย Motors Co. and Chryslerย Group LLC, while Romney was proposing that they go through bankruptcy withย private funding. Mikeย Jackson, chief executive officer of AutoNation Inc., the largest U.S.ย auto-dealer group, has said it was a โfantasyโ that private financingย was available.
Romney is running an ad in Ohio saying that Chrysler plans toย move production of Jeeps to China. Obama has responded with an ad callingย Romneyโs spot dishonest. Chrysler, majority-owned by Fiatย SpA of Italy, is retaining and expanding its Jeep production in Northย America, including in Toledo. It also is deciding whether to expand into China,ย the worldโs largest auto market.
By 37 percent to 25 percent in Florida, 52 percent to 17ย percent in Ohio and 39 percent to 19 percent in Virginia, voters said theirย stateโs economy was getting better rather than worse, and at least two-thirds inย each state who said the economy was improving said Obama deserved a lot or someย of the credit.
Middle-Class Aid
Likely voters said Obama would do a better job than Romney onย helping the middle class by 51 percent to 44 percent in Florida, 54 percent toย 42 percent in Ohio and 52 percent to 44 percent in Virginia.
โIn general, voters prefer Obama on a majority of issues andย characteristics and rate the two candidates roughly even on the big one — theย economy,โ Brown said. โLikely voters think Obama better understands their needsย and problems, but more voters see Romney as a strong leader.โ
The Oct. 23-28 telephone surveys of 1,073 likely voters inย Florida and 1,074 likely voters in Virginia had margins of error of threeย percentage points; the Ohio survey of 1,110 likely voters had a margin of errorย of 2.9 percentage points.
CBS/Times Poll
Separately, a national CBS News/New York Times poll takenย before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast put Obama ahead, 48 percent to 47ย percent, among likely voters. Obama led Romney 49 percent to 46 percent in theย poll last month.
In the CBS/New York Times poll, Obama was ahead among women,ย 52 percent to 44 percent, while Romney led among men, 51 percent toย 44 percent.
Romney held a 51 percent to 45 percent edge on which candidateย would do a better job on the economy and jobs, and a 54 percent to 39 percentย advantage on the budget deficit.
While the nationโs unemployment rate slid to 7.8 percent inย September, the lowest level since Obama took office in January 2009, it was theย first time the rate had fallen below 8 percent in 44 months.
The national CBS/Times survey found voters, by 51 percent toย 39 percent, supporting Obama over Romney on abortion rights. Romney has calledย for the Supremeย Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that privacy rights entitleย women to choose to have an abortion without restriction in their first trimesterย of pregnancy.
Medicare Bill
Obama also had an edge on handling Medicare, 51 percent to 42ย percent. Romneyโs running mate, Representativeย Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, has sponsored House-passed legislation that wouldย replace traditional Medicare for future recipients 10 years from now withย vouchers to buy private insurance or a government plan with a capย on expenditures.
The poll of 563 likely voters taken Oct. 25-28 had a margin ofย error of plus or minus four percentage points.
A survey released yesterday of Hispanic Christian votersย showed Obama with a 63 percent to 26 percent lead over Romney. The poll by Gastonย Espinosa, a professor of religious studies at Claremontย McKenna College in Claremont, California, cited immigration as a key issueย in keeping Hispanics in Obamaโs camp.
Even so, Espinosa said, undecided Hispanic Christian votersย who are socially conservative might break in favor of Romney, who opposesย same-sex marriage.
Romney โOpeningโ
This โcould provide Romney with precisely the opening he needsย to win over a small but vitally important slice of Latino undecided voters inย key swing states who can help him win,โ Espinosa said.
The Oct. 4-10 survey of 1,000 likely Hispanic voters who areย either Roman Catholic or Protestant had a margin of error of plus or minus threeย percentage points.
Obama announced in June that the administration would noย longer deport undocumented residents who were brought to the U.S. as children,ย have lived in the country for at least five years, had no criminal record, andย were in school or had a high school diploma or the equivalent.
Romney earlier this year suggested that undocumentedย immigrants self-deport and described as โamnestyโ any efforts to give them legalย status without first requiring that they leave the country. Then, during an Oct.ย 16 debate with Obama, he said he supports the presidentโs action to let theย children of illegal immigrants stay in the country legally.
In an interview this month with the Des Moines Register, Obamaย said heโs confident he can get an overhaul of immigration law through Congressย next year if heโs re-elected.
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–Editors: Leslie Hoffecker, Steven Komarow
To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington atย jsalant@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings atย jcummings21@bloomberg.net
