About 75 senators, constituting over two-thirds of the Senate, may not
return to the National Assembly at the end of next year’s general
elections, according to a Daily Trust analysis of attrition rate in
the legislature.
The trend from 1999 to date shows that in each election, at least 75
senators lost their bids to return to the 109-member Senate.
This was caused by various factors including falling out of favour
with state governors, losing support of political parties, courting
the fury of the voters and other reasons.
Ahead of the 2015 elections, 25 senators have already indicated
interest to run for governor in their respective states, thereby
leaving an opening for new people to fill the slots they occupy.
Another set of senators are likely to fall victims to the ambition of
their home state governors who are ending their two terms and are
angling to become senators.
No fewer than 16 outgoing governors have indicated their intention to
stand for election as senators next year.
This will put the political future of serving senators from those
senatorial districts in jeopardy.
Governors are powerful and they largely determine the order of things
in their states. In a couple of states they will be pitted against
powerful senators and the battle could be fierce.
An analysis of the attrition rate in the upper chamber indicates that
of the 109 senators, only about 30 or even fewer were returned in the
last three elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011.
In the present Senate, only Senate President David Mark and Chief Whip
Bello Hayatu Gwarzo from Kano State remained from the 1999 class.
Gwarzo was defeated in 2007 elections but was able to reclaim his seat
through the courts more than one and half years into tenure of the
Sixth Senate, our correspondent reports.
In 2003, only 31 senators got re-elected and they include former
Senate Presidents Adolphus Wabara and Ken Nnamani.
Others were Iya Abubakar, Jonathan Zwingina, Udoma Udo Udoma, David
Brigidi, Daniel Saror, David Mark, Patrick Osakwe, Oserhiemen Osunbor
and Fidelis Okoro.
Others are Francis Nzeribe, Ifeanyi Ararume, Ahmed Aruwa, Dalhatu
Sarki Tafida, Tunde Ogbeha, Suleiman Ajadi, Tokunbo Afikuyomi,
Abubakar Sodangi, Ibrahim Mantu, Martins Yellowe, John Azuta Mbata,
Usman Albishir and Mamman Ali.
Only Niger and Zamfara states re-elected all their three senators in
2003. They are Isa Mohammmed, Idris Kuta, Nuhu Aliyu (Niger), and
Lawal Shuaibu, Saidu Dansadau and Mohammed Yushau Anka (Zamfara).
In 2007, the attrition rate got worse as only 23 senators were
returned, which represents less than 20 percent of the Senate.
They included Uche Chukwumerije, Jibril Aminu, Bob Effiong, David
Mark, Omar Hambagda, Gregory Ngaji, Patrick Osakwe, James Manager,
Julius Ucha, Ike Ekweremadu and Tawar Wada.
Others are Bello Hayatu Gwarzo, Kanti Bello, Mohammed Ahmed, Adeleke
Mamora, Nuhu Aliyu, Gbenga Ogunniya, Abubakar Sodangi, Hosea
Ehinlanwo, Iyiola Omisore, Lee Maeba and Umaru Dahiru.
However, in 2011, the number of returnees increased by 10, as 33
senators got re-elected.
Among those who returned in the last election are Nkechi Nwogu, Uche
Chukwumerije, and Eyinnaya Abaribe all from Abia State which makes
Abia and Niger the only two states to have re-elected all their three
senators in two consecutive elections from 1999 to date.
Also on the list of 2011 returnees is Aloysious Etok from Akwa Ibom
State who is already engrossed in a tussle over the Akwa Ibom North
West Senatorial seat with Governor Godswill Akpabio, thereby putting
his ambition of returning to the Senate in danger.
The list also includes Emmanuel Paulker, Heineken Lokpobiri, Goerge
Akume, David Mark, Maina Ma’aji Lawan, Victor Ndoma-Egba, James
Manager, Ehigie Uzamere, Ayogu Eze, Ike Ekweremadu and Chris Anyanwu.
Others are Abdulaziz Usman, Ahmed Makarfi, Atiku Bagudu, Smart
Adeyemi, Gbenga Ashafa, Suleiman Adokwe, Dahiru Awaisu Kuta (who is
also battling over his seat with Governor Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu),
Zainab Kure and Gyang Dangton, who died in July 2012 in Plataea State
violence.
Senators George Sekibo, Wilson Ake, Ahmed Maccido, Umaru Dahiru, Bukar
Abba Ibrahim, Ahmad Lawan, Sahabi Ya’u and Ahmed Rufai Sani were among
those who returned in 2011.
A few other lawmakers now in the Senate have been in the National
Assembly since 1999 having first being elected into the House of
Representatives.
They include Senator Ahmad Lawan from Yobe State who was in the House
of Representatives from 1999-2007 and Senator Abdul Ningi who was in
the lower chamber from 1999 to 2011, and got elected into the Senate
in 2011.
Like Gwarzo, Ningi was out of the House for about half of the tenure
of the last Assembly but got back to the lower chamber after a court
judgment.
Also, Senators Hassan Barata (Adamawa), Sola Adeyeye (Osun), Victor
Lar (Platuea), Ita Enang (Akwa Ibom), Bassey Otu (Cross Rivers), Ayo
Adesuen (Oyo), Sadiq Yar’Adua (Katsina) and Emmanuel Aguariavwodo
(Delta) were at one time or the other in the House of Representatives
between 1999-2011. Barata had also been in the House of
Representatives in 1992.
Senate leader Victor Ndoma-Egba (PDP, Cross River) said the drawback
is that the institutional memory of the legislature is lost and that
in each session, lawmakers spend the large part of the tenure learning
the ropes.
“Because of the peculiar nature of parliament, its institutional
memory is the aggregate of the memory of its individual members. The
more members that you lose, you lose to that extent the institutional
memory,” Ndoma-Egba said.
“In parliament, members are trained and exposed at tax payers cost.
Also, establishing networks for effectiveness to the constituents
takes time.”
He added that by not re-electing lawmakers, Nigerian tax payers will
have to put up with spending money every four years to train the new
comers.
“Some get involved in international, continental and regional
parliaments acquiring technical experience or expertise in specific
areas and networks. All these are lost when they lose their seats at
home and the country loses. Parliamentarians are like old wines, they
get better with age,” he said.
