The Shambolic Nigeria’s New GDP In A Bleeding Economy – By Emeka J. Ononamadu

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The Gentlemen of the Press,

Fellow Citizens and Compatriots

Ladies and gentlemen

Is Nigeria a country or a company owned by one or few individuals? Is it an enterprise without set rules and market scrambling? What is Nigeria in the face of the recently announced GDP? Is it a banana republic or what? Whatever is has turned to be, Nigeria has announced a GDP growth of $453billion in 2012, theoretically making it the largest in Africa. It also places Nigeria as the 26^th largest economy in the world while it remains on the rung of 121 on per capita income among countries. This is another right moment to raise an alarm on the bleeding economy of Nigeria, which increasingly proves to be unpredictable in a matter of content and context. Which also proves that Nigeria has defiled the real reason for a nation state – equitable distribution of resources?  The first interpretation of the new GDP is that Nigeria has an economy whose prediction is only understood by the managers and not the citizens. While the latest Wordlbank calculation puts Nigeria on $264bilion GDP for 2012, the current release says the opposite. Can this disagreement lead to any economic freedom for Nigeria? Hmmm.

Despite these conflicting GDP announcements, the real issues for determination and correlation are:

·         How was this growth possible in the face of near absence of basic infrastructure like electricity, water, transport etc?

·         What is the size of sectors that have closed down in the last 10 years as against the emerging sectors like Nollywood and communication?

·         If over 130million Nigerians are unemployed and the country has no automated production capacity, who is producing and from where?

·         Can corruption, like the way it is in Nigeria, allow this kind of growth? How many corrupt countries have experienced this kind of growth in 10 years?

·         If GDP is really a function of production, why is the unemployment situation worsening by the day?

·         With less than 150 publicly quoted companies and rate of closure of sectors like textile, and heavy importation dependency, who could be correct between Worlbank and Nigeria economy managers?

·         Is this GDP announcement aimed at covering corruption and government ineptitude since 1999?

While we know that Nigeria GDP should measure the monetary value of final goods and services—that is, those that are bought by the final user—produced in Nigeria in a given period of time , we are worried how it is used and how it links with the citizens since consumption is one of the angles of GDP measurement. This means that if over 70% Nigerians live below $2 per day, the GDP as pronounced is questionable and subject to executive fiat instead of practical reality.  Whether GDP is viewed from production, consumption or income, the reality is that it has to do with production, income or consumption capacities of citizens of Nigeria. What the announcement by the government statisticians says both directly and indirectly is that the Nigeria economy is healthy. Is this picture true? The answer is capital NO.

It is important to note that in calculating real GDP, growth is usually associated with increased employment, because when GDP is growing strongly, employment is likely to be increasing as companies hire more workers for their factories and people have more money in their pockets. When GDP is shrinking, as it did in many countries (which may include Nigeria), during the recent global economic crisis, employment often declines. It is important to note that employment decline in Nigeria has been sustained with huge level of corruption in the last 20 years. Since 1999, there has never been a positive sign on the employment front in Nigeria. This leads to the question, who is doing the production? If what happened in the failed Immigration employment exercise, that took the lives of many Nigeria job seekers, is put into consideration, then it means that ghosts are doing the productions that were captured into the new GDP.

Another factors that deflect that announcement of the new GDP is the strength of our currency –Naira, because GDP is not a political statement, it is an economic statement. It is measured in the currency of a country in question. The value of Nigeria Naira as at 2012 averages around N153 to a dollar.  What this means in that 2012, Nigeria economy was producing goods and services valued at $456billion multiply by N153. This means that if the un-calculated productions are factored in, Nigeria production, or consumption or income value of GDP is over N500trillion.  Why was Nigerians poor and highly unemployed?

This GDP does not really measure that overall standard of living of citizens. Were the changes in the output of goods and services per person (GDP per capita) used as a measure of whether the average Nigeria citizen in Nigeria is better or worse off? The answer again is capital NO.  The quality of life of Nigerians does not support this new DGP in any way. It makes it more or less a political statement.  To adjust GDPs to it real value, the Human Development Index as calculated by UNDP must be put into consideration. Those factors include Life expectancy, literacy, and school enrollment, employment etc. maybe Nigeria needs genuine progress indicator and gross national happiness index to correct the short coming of this GDP. The only reality that can be associated with the currently announced GDP is that the Nigeria economy is in the hands of less than 3% of our population and this 3% uses ghosts to drive their production. Otherwise, the pronouncement will not make any sense.

It is not enough to display figures that make little or no meaning to Nigeria citizens and residents. Nigeria economy managers needs to convince Nigerians with hard facts in the face of multiple challenges that we face as a nation. Our other demands are:

1                     Government needs to further provide information that shows the real distribution of this GDP according to the 36 states and FCT

2                     There should be a concerted effort to redistribute wealth and production capacity so that Nigerians will be involved and unemployment will decrease

3                     There should be a well-directed effort to relate the growth of the economy to the unimaginable unemployment situation and poverty in Nigeria

4                     Economic expert from the independent civil society should be made to be part of the observers in the process of calculating Nigeria’s GDP

5                     Corruption as a single factor should be integrated into the calculation of Nigeria’s GDP so that its effects are presented to Nigerians.

6                     Nigerians need to know why the increase in production is not associated to increase in employment and income to citizens.

7                     GDPs should be debated by stakeholders before they are released as a national data reality.

Conclusion

Many countries use the GDP devise to properly govern their country and plan well. As we are coming out from a self-imposed national conference, Nigeria should properly interpret the  challenges this new GDP poses in terms of how it was arrived at and what it intends to cover up for the poor management of Nigeria’s economy since over 20 years ago. It is safe to say that most growths, which may not be recorded and which has been the pillar of Nigerians survival is the unaccounted subsistence efforts by many households. If there is ever any progress, it is unintended and no politician or public officer should take the credit that belongs to Nigerians.

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